Analysis of nosocomial infection risk factors in neurosurgical ICU patients and its prediction model construction
10.3969/j.issn.1671-8348.2024.14.008
- VernacularTitle:神经外科ICU患者医院感染的危险因素分析及预测模型构建
- Author:
Xiaosong ZHU
1
;
Ling ZHANG
;
Liping WANG
;
Zhiqing SUN
;
Zhiwen ZUO
;
Fengjuan ZHUO
;
Shanxin PENG
;
Qingxin SONG
Author Information
1. 临沂市人民医院医院感染管理部 山东临沂 276003
- Keywords:
neurosurgery;
ICU;
nosocomial infection;
risk factor;
predictive model
- From:
Chongqing Medicine
2024;53(14):2120-2124,2129
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the risk factors of nosocomial infection among the patients in neuro-surgical ICU,and to construct the risk prediction model to provide reference for the prediction of nosocomial infection in neurosurgical ICU patients.Methods The clinical data of 280 patients admitted and treated in the neurosurgery ICU of this hospital from January 2021 to December 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.The pa-tients were divided into the infection group and non-infection group based on whether or not nosocomial infec-tion occurring,140 cases in each group.A total of 196 patients were extracted as the training set by a ratio of 7︰3 for constructing the model,while the remaining 84 patients served as the validation set for conducting the internal verification.The logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors of nosocomial infection in the neurosurgery ICU patients,and a predictive model was established.The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn to evaluate the predictive effect of the model.Results The multivariate logistic re-gression analysis indicated that old age,long surgery time,catheter use and glucocorticoids use were screened as the main risk factors of nosocomial infection occurrence in neurosurgery ICU patients.The nomogram mod-el was constructed based on the results of multivariate analysis,the area under the curve of training set and validation set were 0.796 and 0.875,respectively.The correcting model reflected good consistency between actual diagnosis and predictive diagnosis.Conclusion The model constructed in this study has the high predic-tive value for the nosocomial infection occurrence risk in the patients of the neurosurgery ICU.
