Analysis of risk factors for massive hemorrhage during cesarean section of pernicious placenta previa and establishment of risk prediction model
10.3969/j.issn.1671-8348.2024.11.010
- VernacularTitle:凶险性前置胎盘剖宫产术中大量出血的危险因素分析及风险预测模型的建立
- Author:
Yan MA
1
;
Kai YANG
;
Shanshan WANG
;
Yihu MA
;
Jia LIANG
;
Junru ZHANG
;
Xiangdong MA
Author Information
1. 空军军医大学西京医院 妇产科,西安 710032
- Keywords:
placenta previa;
placenta accreta;
caeserean section;
hemorrhage;
risk prediction model
- From:
Chongqing Medicine
2024;53(11):1650-1655
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To explore the influencing factors of massive hemorrhage during cesarean section of pernicious placenta previa,and establish a risk prediction model.Methods The clinical data of 340 pregnant women with pernicious placenta previa who underwent cesarean section for termination of pregnancy in this hospital from January 2017 to December 2021 were collected.They were divided into the common hemorrhage group (the amount of intraoperative blood loss<2000 mL,n=200) and massive hemorrhage group (the a-mount of intraoperative blood loss ≥2000 mL,n=140).The clinical characteristics of pregnant women,clini-cal data of this pregnancy,situation of the fetus,and imaging information were compared between the two groups.Combining the variables with a P value<0.05 in the univariate analysis and the possible influencing factors of massive hemorrhage during cesarean section in pregnant women with pernicious placenta previa in clinical practice,the binary multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted,and a risk prediction model was established.Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to evaluate the fitting effect and discrimination of the model.Results The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the number of abortions,placental thickness,combining with placental implantation,number of previous cesarean sections and fetal gender were the independent influencing factors for massive hemorrhage (≥2000 mL) during cesarean section in pregnant women with pernicious placenta previa (P<0.05).The prediction model formula:P=Log (Y/1-Y),Y=0.396+1.371×(number of abor-tions=three times)+1.248×(number of abortions ≥ four times)-0.351×(placental thickness)+0.624× (combining with placental implantation)+0.974×(two or more previous cesarean sections)+0.638 × (female=0,male=1).The results of Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test showed that the prediction mod-el had good calibration ability (x2=77.825,P<0.001).The area under the ROC curve was 0.768 (95％CI:0.717-0.820),the specificity was 83.0％,the positive predictive value was 70.2％,and the negative predic-tive value was 73.5％.Conclusion The risk prediction model of massive hemorrhage during cesarean section in pregnant women with pernicious placenta previa has good performance.It is helpful to identify high-risk pregnant women in the prenatal evaluation,and provide a basis for formulating the blood transfusion plan in clinic,and prevention and treatment of adverse pregnancy outcomes.
