Acute effect of daily mean temperature on ischemic heart disease mortality: a multivariable meta-analysis from 12 counties across Hubei Province, China
10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2016.11.013
- VernacularTitle:湖北省12区县日平均气温对缺血性心脏病死亡的急性影响研究
- Author:
Yunquan ZHANG
1
;
Chuanhua YU
;
Junzhe BAO
Author Information
1. 武汉大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系
- Keywords:
Temperature;
Mortality;
Ischemic heart disease;
Distributed lag nonlinear model;
Multivariate meta-analysis
- From:
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine
2016;50(11):990-995
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To evaluate the acute effects of daily mean temperature on ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in 12 counties across Hubei Province,China.Methods We obtained the daily IHD mortality data and meteorological data of the 12 counties for 2009-2012.The distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to estimate the community-specific association between mean temperature and IHD mortality.A multivariate meta-analysis was then applied to pool the community-specific relationship between temperature and IHD mortality,and the effects of cold and heat on mortality risk.Results In 2009-2012,of the 6 702 012 people included in this study,19 688 died of IHD.A daily average of 1.2 IHD deaths occurred in each community.The annual average mean temperature was 16.6 ℃ during the study period.A nonlinear temperature-IHD mortality relationship was observed for different cumulative lag days at the provincial level.The pooled heat effect was acute but attenuated within 2 days.In contrast,the cold effect was delayed and persisted for more than 2 weeks.Compared with a reference temperature (25th percentile of mean temperature during the study period,P25),the cold effect for P10 of mean temperature was associated with IHD mortality,the RR(95％CI) was 1.084 (1.008-1.167) at lag 0-14,and 1.149 (1.053-1.253) at lag 0-21.For the P1 cold temperature,the mortality RR (95％ CI) values were 1.116 (0.975-1.276)and 1.220 (1.04-1.428),respectively.We found no significant association between high temperatures and IHD mortality in the present study at different lag days.Conclusion In Hubei Province,low temperature was associated with increased IHD mortality risk,and cold effects lasted for several days;no significant effect of high temperature was observed.
