Establishment and clinical verification of a mathematical model foRpredicting the probability of malignancy oRbegin in patients with solitary pulmonary nodules
10.7619/jcmp.201709021
- VernacularTitle:孤立性肺结节良恶性判断数学预测模型的建立及临床对比验证分析
- Author:
Chonghao ZHONG
1
;
Hongcan SHI
;
Yusheng SHU
;
Weiping SHI
;
Shichun LU
;
Chao SUN
Author Information
1. 扬州大学临床医学院 胸外科
- Keywords:
solitary pulmonary nodule;
mathematical prediction model;
malignancy;
comparative analysis
- From:
Journal of Clinical Medicine in Practice
2017;21(9):82-85,93
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To establish a mathematical model foRestimating the probability of malignancy in patients with solitary pulmonary nodule,and to verify the accuracy of this model.Methods A retrospective cohort study included 405 patients (220 males and 174 females) with definite pathological diagnosis of SPN from January 2008 to SeptembeR2013 (group A).Clinical and imaging features were analyzed,and a clinical prediction model was built with multivariate Logistic regression analysis.The otheR168 SPN patients (group B) with definite pathological diagnosis from OctobeR2013 to SeptembeR2015 were selected to estimate the accuracy of the model.Calibration of this model was assessed by Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test.The area undeRcurve (AUC) afteRreceive operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn.Results Logistic regression analysis showed that age,previous canceRhistory,family history of cancer,diameter,speculation,lobulation,border,pleural retraction sign were independent predictors of malignancy in SPN patients (P<0.05).The sensitivity in group B was 94.7%,specificity was 76.4%,positive predictive value was 89.2%,and negative predictive value was 87.5%.The AUC of this model was 0.809±0.017.Conclusion The clinical prediction model that we established by retrospective study has a higheRclinical value in predicting the probability of malignancy oRbegin in patients with solitary pulmonary nodules.
