Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for pneumoconiosis patients complicated with chronic pulmonary heart disease based on Tei index
10.3760/cma.j.cn121094-20220531-00294
- VernacularTitle:基于Tei指数对尘肺病患者并发慢性肺心病风险预测模型的构建及验证
- Author:
Yunxiang LI
1
;
Xin LI
;
Shaoping PAN
;
Qiaoping GAO
;
Min ZHANG
Author Information
1. 烟台市烟台山医院南院急诊科，烟台 264000
- Keywords:
Pneumoconiosis;
Pulmonary heart disease;
Influencing factors;
Prediction;
Models
- From:
Chinese Journal of Industrial Hygiene and Occupational Diseases
2023;41(11):836-839
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To conduct a statistical analysis on the condition of patients with pneumoconiosis complicated with chronic pulmonary heart disease based on the Tei index, and to establish a relevant prediction model.Methods:In March 2022, a retrospective analysis of 226 patients diagnosed with pneumoconiosis in the Department of Occupational Disease of Yantai Yantaishan Hospital from January 2016 to January 2022 was conducted. The patients with pneumoconiosis complicated by pulmonary heart disease were included in the pulmonary heart disease group and others were included in the non-pulmonary heart disease group. logistic regression analysis was used to screen out the relevant factors and establish a risk prediction model. Hosmer-Lemeshow test was applied to determine the goodness of fit of the model, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the predictive effect of the model.Results:Among the 226 patients with pneumoconiosis, 58 patients had chronic pulmonary heart disease, accounting for 25.7% of the surveyed population. The logistic analysis showed that the course of disease, pneumoconiosis stage and Tei index were influencing factors of pneumoconiosis complicated with pulmonary heart disease ( P<0.05). A risk prediction model for pneumoconiosis patients complicated with pulmonary heart disease was developed: Z=6.253 X1+1.265 X2+1.423 X3+9.264, in which X1 was the stage of pneumoconiosis, X2 was the course of disease, and X3 was the Tei index. Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to evaluate the goodness of fit of the risk prediction model for pneumoconiosis patients complicated with pulmonary heart disease, the results indicated that the prediction model was in good agreement with the actual situation (χ 2=11.59, P=0.254). The diagnostic ability of the model was evaluated by the ROC curve, and the results showed that its AUC was 0.897, the sensitivity was 0.947, and the specificity was 0.784. Conclusion:The course of disease, pneumoconiosis stage and Tei index are the influencing factors of pneumoconiosis complicated with pulmonary heart disease. The model constructed based on these factors has a good prediction effect, which can provide a basis for the early detection and intervention of pneumoconiosis complicated with pulmonary heart disease.
