Construction and application of a staged early warning model for dengue fever

VernacularTitle:登革热分阶段预警模型的构建与应用
Author: Ruoyun TAN ¹ ; Fudong LI ; Haiyan MA ; Junfen LIN
Author Information

1. 浙江省疾病预防控制中心公共卫生监测与业务指导所，杭州　310051
Keywords: Dengue fever; Staged early warning; Poisson regression model; Support Vector Machine; Random forests model
From: Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;58(11):1783-1788
CountryChina
Language:Chinese
Abstract: To achieve early warning of dengue fever from multiple sources and improve the ability to detect and identify dengue fever outbreaks timely, we took Hangzhou as an example and proposed the possibility of early warning of dengue fever. This study divided early warning of dengue fever into three stages: early warning of epidemic source, epidemic symptom, and epidemic. The early warning of epidemic source and epidemic symptom were emphasized to provide reference for other similar studies. Our findings showed that the staged warning of dengue fever was meaningful. Combining the source early warning with the symptom early warning could improve the sensitivity of the warning. Monthly warning can be used as a supplement to weekly warning.