Evaluation of the application of moving epidemic method on making influenza epidemic thresholds in the 7 climate zones in China
10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253?9624.2019.10.010
- VernacularTitle:移动流行区间法在中国7个气候区流感流行阈值制定中的应用效果评价
- Author:
Yayun TAN
1
;
Lingjia ZENG
;
Ying QIN
;
Jiandong ZHENG
;
Zhongjie LI
;
Dayan WANG
;
Tao CHEN
;
Luzhao FENG
;
Zhibin PENG
Author Information
1. 苏州市疾病预防控制中心传染病防制科215000
- Keywords:
Influenza,human;
Epidemics;
Threshold limit values;
Moving epidemic method
- From:
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine
2019;53(10):1007-1011
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective We planned to evaluate the effectiveness of moving epidemic method (MEM) in calculating influenza epidemic threshold of 7 climatic zones in China mainland. Methods The positive rate of influenza virus was obtained from the National Influenza Surveillance Network System from 2010/2011 to 2017/2018. We divided the 31 provinces into 7 climatic zones according to previous literatures and applied MEM to calculate the influenza epidemic threshold of 2018/2019 influenza season for these climatic zones. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were calculated to evaluate the effectiveness of MEM. Results Pre?epidemic threshold (the positive rate of influenza virus) varied from 9.66% (temperate zone) to 16.36% (subtropical zone) for 2018/2019 influenza season. The gap between pre?epidemic and post?epidemic thresholds was less than 5% except for plateau zone. The sensitivity was 86.16% (95CI: 66.81% - 98.23%), the specificity was 94.92% (95CI:91.13%-98.41%), the positive predictive value was 89.87% (95% CI : 84.39%-94.38%), the negative predictive value was 92.96% (95%CI: 84.46%-99.17%). Conclusion Overall, moving epidemic Method performs well in calculating influenza epidemic threshold in China, much better than the previous study.