Epidemiological characteristics and ARIMA model application for other infectious diarrhea in Urumqi, Xinjiang from 2014 to 2018
10.3760/cma.j.cn112866-20220818-00181
- VernacularTitle:2014—2018年新疆乌鲁木齐市其他感染性腹泻流行特征及ARIMA模型预测
- Author:
Mingfen YANG
1
;
Xiangyan HE
;
Zhenguo GAO
;
Mei CHEN
Author Information
1. 新疆维吾尔自治区人民医院，乌鲁木齐 830002
- Keywords:
Other infectious diarrhea;
Epidemiological characteristics;
ARIMA
- From:
Chinese Journal of Experimental and Clinical Virology
2023;37(1):71-77
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To understand the prevalence of other infectious diarrhea in Urumqi, Xinjiang from 2014 to 2018, to explore application of ARIMA model to predict other infectious diarrhea, and to provide a basis for scientific prevention and treatment.Methods:The epidemiological data of other perceptual diarrhea in a tertiary hospital from 2014 to 2018 and the data of laboratory test result in the " China Disease Prevention and Control Information System" were collected and sorted for descriptive epidemiological analysis, and SPSS software was used to predict the ARIMA model.Results:Other infectious diarrhea cases in a tertiary hospital from 2014 to 2018 were mainly concentrated in June to October (1 748 cases), accounting for 65.89% of the total cases in the whole year. Children under 10 years of age were the main population for other infectious diarrhea (1 699 cases), accounting for 49.26%. Rotavirus infection was the main cause of other infectious diarrhea (339 cases), accounting for 93.38% of all detected pathogens. ARIMA (0, 1, 2)(0, 1, 1) 12 was the optimal model, which verified that the average relative error of the number of cases in Urumqi from January to December in 2018 was 20%, and the actual value was within the 95% confidence interval of the predicted value. Conclusions:Health education on the prevention of other infectious diarrhea should be strengthened for children under 10 years of age and their parents in Urumqi, focusing on rotavirus diarrhea, and the promotion and vaccination of rotavirus vaccine for children under 10 years old should be done well. ARIMA (0, 1, 2)(0, 1, 1) 12 has certain value in predicting the incidence of other infectious diarrhea.
