Epidemic analysis of COVID-19 in Hubei province and areas outside Hubei province
10.3760/cma.j.cn112866-20200313-00063
- VernacularTitle:湖北省及中国其他地区COVID-19疫情分析
- Author:
Yasha WANG
1
;
Xu CHU
;
Li ZHANG
;
Hongtu LIU
Author Information
1. 北京大学高可信软件技术教育部重点实验室 100871；北京大学软件工程国家工程研究中心 100871
- Keywords:
COVID-19;
2019-nCoV;
Epidemic forecast;
Epidemic analysis
- From:
Chinese Journal of Experimental and Clinical Virology
2020;34(3):241-246
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To recognize the development pattern of COVID-19 epidemic, and to predict the development trend of the epidemic in three categories: the country, Hubei province, and areas outside Hubei province.Methods:The BloComp model was used to fit existing data. With the estimated parameters, we simulated future epidemic development.Results:The pattern of virus transfer among different populations in Hubei province was significantly different from that outside Hubei province. It is predicted by the BloComp model that the time when the number of confirmed cases fell to zero in Hubei province and areas outside Hubei will be May 2020 and April 2020, respectively.Conclusions:The epidemic situation will end at the end of May 2020. Adequate medical resources investment and more comprehensive and accurate investigation of suspected people play important roles in controlling the epidemic situation.
