Changes in tuberculosis incidence in BRICS countries from 1990 to 2019 and incidence trend prediction
10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240226-00082
- VernacularTitle:1990-2019年金砖五国结核病发病率变化及发病趋势预测
- Author:
Danni LI
1
;
Qi ZHAO
;
Biao XU
Author Information
1. 复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室，上海 200032
- Keywords:
Tuberculosis;
BRICS countries;
Incidence rate;
Bayesian analysis
- From:
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2024;45(8):1066-1072
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To understand the trend in the disease burden of tuberculosis in the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) from 1990 to 2019, forecast the incidence of tuberculosis in the BRICS countries from 2020 to 2030.Methods:This study used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to describe the incidence trends from 1990 to 2019 and epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis in the BRICS countries. The Bayesian-age- period-cohort model was used to predict the incidence of tuberculosis in the BRICS countries from 2020 to 2030.Results:Although the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) of tuberculosis were on the decline in all BRICS countries, the magnitude of the decline varied, with the most significant decline in China and the least in South Africa. In 2019, there were gender and age differences in the incidence of tuberculosis in all BRICS countries. Except for South Africa, the ASIR in males were higher than that in females and except for South Africa and Russia, the incidence rates of tuberculosis showed an increasing trend with age in all BRICS countries. From 2020 to 2030, the incidence rates of tuberculosis in the BRICS countries were projected to be declining, except it was likely to increase among women in Russia. However, the expected decrease of tuberculosis incidence in the BRICS countries by 2030 would be less than 80% as compared to that of 2015.Conclusions:Positive results have been achieved in the prevention and treatment of tuberculosis in BRICS countries. But the situation is still serious, with demographic differences in the incidence of tuberculosis in different countries.
