Epidemic trends and predictive analysis of other infectious diarrhea in Jiangxi Province, 2017-2022
10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20230421-00259
- VernacularTitle:江西省2017-2022年其他感染性腹泻流行趋势和预测分析
- Author:
Fuqiang YANG
1
;
Yuan JIN
;
Huanhong PAN
;
Jun ZONG
Author Information
1. 江西省疾病预防控制中心，南昌 330029
- Keywords:
Other infectious diarrhea;
Epidemic trends;
Autoregressive integrated moving average model;
Prediction
- From:
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2023;44(10):1641-1645
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze epidemic trends of other infectious diarrhea in Jiangxi Province from 2017 to 2022, and explore the application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in the prediction of the incidence of other infectious diarrhea in Jiangxi Province, providing reference for the prediction and prevention and control of other infectious diarrhea.Methods:To conduct a descriptive epidemiological analysis of other infectious diarrhea cases in Jiangxi Province from 2017 to 2022, and establish an ARIMA model to predict the number of other infectious diarrhea cases in 2023.Results:From 2017 to 2022, Jiangxi Province reported 204 842 cases of other infectious diarrhea. The annual average reported incidence rate was 74.32/100 000. The cases were reported in each age group with obvious seasonal characteristics of the main peak. There were two peak periods of incidence in winter and spring (from January to March) and in summer and autumn (from July to September) and the peak value was higher in winter and spring. All parameters of the model ARIMA (0,1,2)(2,1,0) 12 and ARIMA (1,0,0)(2,1,0) 12 were statistically significant ( P<0.05), and the minimum values of Bayesian information criterion were 13.83 and 9.12, respectively. The residual series were all white noise ( P>0.05); The predicted value of the model is in good agreement with the actual value, and the predicted trend is consistent with the actual trend. The model has a good prediction effect. Conclusions:The other infectious diarrhea occurred in 2017-2022 was still the first case of notifiable disease in Jiangxi Province. The prevention and control situation cannot be ignored. Disease monitoring and health education for families of children under 3 years of age and scattered children among key populations for prevention and control should be strengthened during the epidemic season. The ARIMA model can be used for short-term prediction and trend analysis of other infectious diarrhea outbreaks in Jiangxi Province.
