Epidemic situation of HIV/AIDS and change trend in Belt and Road countries
10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20220126-00075
- VernacularTitle:“一带一路”沿线国家HIV/AIDS流行现状及变化趋势研究
- Author:
Yaping WANG
1
;
Wenzhan JING
;
Min DU
;
Liangyu KANG
;
Weijing SHANG
;
Jue LIU
;
Min LIU
Author Information
1. 北京大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系，北京100191
- Keywords:
Belt and Road;
HIV/AIDS;
Incidence;
Trend
- From:
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2022;43(7):1053-1059
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To understand the epidemic situation of HIV/AIDS and its change trend in the Belt and Road countries and provide evidence for the improvement of prevention and control of the cross-border transmission of HIV/AIDS.Methods:The 145 countries that have signed the cooperation document of the Belt and Road initiative with China were selected in our study. Age-standardized incidence rate and prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS in the 145 countries from 2013 to 2019 were downloaded from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Age-standardized incidence rate and prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS in 2019 were used to describe the HIV/AIDS epidemics in 145 countries, and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of incidence was calculated to analyze the trend of HIV/AIDS incidence from 2013 to 2019.Results:In 2019, Africa had the highest proportion of countries with HIV/AIDS incidence exceeding 40.00 per 100 000 (56.86%, 29/51), and Asia had the lowest proportion (5.41%, 2/37). The countries with the prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS exceeding 100.00 per 10 000 were almost distributed in Africa, accounting for 20.69% (30/145). From 2013 to 2019, the incidence rate of HIV/AIDS increased in 50 countries, accounting for 34.48% (50/145). The incidence rate of HIV/AIDS showed downward trends in 69 countries (47.59%, 69/145), and showed no significant change in 26 countries (17.93%, 26/145). The most obvious increase of incidence rate of HIV/AIDS was observed in Comoros (EAPC=15.60, 95% CI: 5.84-26.26) and the most obvious decrease was observed in Burundi (EAPC=-14.27, 95% CI: -15.21 to -13.31). Conclusions:In the Belt and Road countries, the most severe disease burden of HIV/AIDS was observed in countries in Africa, and the incidences of HIV/AIDS increased rapidly in some European countries, which means the risk of cross-border transmission still exists. Hence, the prevention and control of HIV/AIDS in China should be further strengthened in the future.
