A study on the identification of threshold for early warning on adverse weather events based on the association of apparent temperature and years of life lost
10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200625-00884
- VernacularTitle:基于体感温度-寿命损失年暴露反应关系确定体感温度的健康风险预警阈值研究
- Author:
Siqi CHEN
1
;
Min YU
;
Maigeng ZHOU
;
Chunliang ZHOU
;
Yize XIAO
;
Biao HUANG
;
Yanjun XU
;
Liang ZHAO
;
Jianxiong HU
;
Xiaojun XU
;
Tao LIU
;
Jianpeng XIAO
;
Weilin ZENG
;
Lingchuan GUO
;
Xing LI
;
Wenjun MA
Author Information
1. 广东省疾病预防控制中心广东省公共卫生研究院/慢性非传染性疾病预防控制所，广州 511430
- Keywords:
Apparent temperature;
Years of life lost;
Regression tree model;
Meteorological health warning system
- From:
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2021;42(8):1445-1452
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To identify the threshold of a health warning system based on the association of apparent temperature and years of life lost (YLL).Methods:Daily mortality records and meteorological data were collected from 364 Chinese counties for 2006-2017. Distributed lag nonlinear model and multivariate Meta-analyses were applied to estimate the association between the apparent temperature and YLL rate. A regression tree model was employed to estimate the warning thresholds of the apparent temperature. Stratified analyses were further conducted by age and cause of death.Results:The daily YLL rate was 23.6/10 5. The mean daily apparent temperature was 15.7 ℃. U-shaped nonlinear associations were observed between apparent temperature and YLL rate. The actual temperature-caused YLL rate for the elderly was higher than the young population. The daily excess deaths rate increased with the higher effect levels. Conclusions:Regression tree model was employed to define the warning threshold for meteorological health risk. The present study provides theoretical support for the weather-related health warning system.
