Analysis on influence and lag effects of meteorological factors on incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Shijiazhuang, 2017-2019
10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200930-01213
- VernacularTitle:石家庄市2017-2019年气象因素与手足口病发病相关性及其滞后效应分析
- Author:
Miaomiao XU
1
;
Tong SU
;
Yingying LIU
;
Wenna ZHAO
;
Qiuli YU
;
Shunxiang QI
;
Jialin LI
;
Qi LI
Author Information
1. 华北理工大学公共卫生学院，唐山 063200
- Keywords:
Hand, foot and mouth disease;
Meteorological factors;
Distributed lag nonlinear model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2021;42(5):827-832
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To understand the influence and lag effect of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Shijiazhuang.Methods:The daily incidence data of HFMD in Shijiazhuang during 2017-2019 were collected from Chinese Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The hourly meteorological data were collected form meteorological stations of Shijiazhuang of Chinese meteorological data network. The distributed lag nonlinear model was built for statistical analysis by software R 3.6.2.Results:When the daily average temperature was 15-26 ℃, the risk of incidence of HFMD increased at lag 3-6 days. However, the risk was highest when the temperature was 25 ℃ at lag 3 days ( RR=1.03,95% CI:1.00-1.06). When the daily average relative humidity was more than 80%, the risk of incidence of HFMD increased at lag 5-18 days. However, the risk was highest at lag 9 days ( RR=1.04, 95% CI: 1.02-1.06).When the daily average air pressure ranged from 999 hPa to 1 007 hPa, the risk of incidence of HFMD increased at lag 5-8 days. However, the risk was highest at lag 6 days ( RR=1.01, 95% CI: 1.00-1.02).When the daily average precipitation ranged from 15 to 32 mm, the risk of incidence of HFMD increased at lag 3-18 days. However, the risk was highest at lag 6 days ( RR=1.11, 95% CI: 1.02-1.19). Conclusions:Meteorological factors increased the risk of incidence of HFMD such as higher daily average temperature (15-26 ℃), higher daily average humidity (>80%), lower daily average air pressure (999-1 007 hPa) and higher daily average precipitation (15-32 mm) in Shijiazhuang during 2017-2019. They were all correlated with the incidence of HFMD with certain lag days. It is suggested to use these meteorological indicators for the early warning of HFMD.
