Trend analysis on morbidity and mortality of pancreatic cancer in China, 2005-2015
10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20201115-01328
- VernacularTitle:2005-2015年中国胰腺癌发病与死亡趋势分析
- Author:
Jie CAI
1
;
Hongda CHEN
;
Ming LU
;
Yuhan ZHANG
;
Bin LU
;
Lei YOU
;
Min DAI
;
Yupei ZHAO
Author Information
1. 中国医学科学院北京协和医学院北京协和医院基本外科，北京 100730
- Keywords:
Pancreatic cancer;
Incidence;
Mortality;
Age-Period-Cohort model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2021;42(5):794-800
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the trend of morbidity and mortality of pancreatic cancer in China from 2005 to 2015 and estimate the related age, period and cohort effect, respectively.Methods:Joinpoint regression analysis was used to analyze the trend of morbidity rate and mortality rate of pancreatic cancer during 2005-2015 and calculate the annual percentage change and average annual percentage change based on the data in the annual report of China Cancer Registry. Population aged 20-84 years was fitted by the Age-Period-Cohort model to estimate the effect parameters of age, period and cohort.Results:The trend variations of the crude morbidity rate and crude mortality rate of pancreatic cancer were consistent. The morbidity rate of pancreatic cancer firstly increased before 2008 and then decreased. The morbidity rate and mortality rate of pancreatic cancer were higher in men than women, and higher in urban areas than in rural areas. From 2005 to 2015, the overall age-standardized morbidity rate of pancreatic cancer increased by 2.78% annually and the overall age standardized mortality rate of pancreatic cancer increased by 2.24% annually. The age standardized morbidity of pancreatic cancer in rural men changed more rapidly, with an average annual increase of 3.74%, and the age standardized mortality rate of pancreatic cancer in urban men changed more rapidly, with an average annual increase of 3.57%. The age effect on the morbidity and mortality of pancreatic cancer increased with age, and the effect was most obvious in age group 70-80 years, the period effect increased over time and the cohort effect decreased with year, but rebound or fluctuation was observed after 1976.Conclusions:The morbidity rate and mortality rate of pancreatic cancer in China increased slightly in past decades. Strategies on effective prevention and control of pancreatic cancer should be developed in the future.
