Risk assessment of global COVID-19 imported cases into China
10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200415-00577
- VernacularTitle:全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对我国的输入风险评估
- Author:
Sipeng SHEN
1
;
Yongyue WEI
;
Yang ZHAO
;
Yue JIANG
;
Jinxing GUAN
;
Feng CHEN
Author Information
1. 南京医科大学公共卫生学院，全球健康中心 211166
- Keywords:
COVID-19;
Import cases;
Worldwide epidemic trends;
Risk prediction
- From:
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2020;41(10):1582-1587
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To assess the risk of COVID-19 foreign imports cases to China.Methods:We collected epidemic data (cumulative daily confirmed cases in each country, cumulative confirmed imported cases), demographic data (population density, population) and information on potential source groups of tourists (the daily estimated number of overseas Chinese, overseas Chinese students, overseas workers, foreign students coming to China and flight passengers) and the global health security index (GHS) to assess and predict risk of imported cases for recent (February 1 st to April 25 th) and future (after April 26 th). Results:Strong positive correlation was found among variables including the number of imported cases, cumulative confirmed cases, attack rate, number of overseas Chinese, number of overseas Chinese students, number of foreign students coming to China, number of flight passengers and GHS. In the recent risk analysis, imported cases of Russian were the highest, followed by United Kingdom, United States, France and Spain. In the future risk prediction, 44 countries including United States and Singapore are evaluated as potential high-risk countries in the future through the attack rate index of each country and the estimated average number of daily passengers.Conclusion:The risk assessment of COVID-19 imported cases can be used to identify high-risk areas in recent and future, and might be helpful to strengthen the prevention and control of the epidemic and ultimately overcome the epidemic.
