Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of hepatitis B in Hainan Province, 2015-2021
- Author:
FU Zhenwang
;
SHAN Shiheng
;
LI Weixia
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Hepatitis B;
Hainan;
epidemiological characteristics;
polynomial model;
grey prediction model
- From:
China Tropical Medicine
2024;24(2):143-
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis B in Hainan from 2015 to 2021, and to predict the incidence trends among different populations, so as to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of hepatitis B based on the epidemiological characteristics and prediction. Methods Descriptive epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis B in Hainan were analyzed, and the incidence of hepatitis B among different populations in Hainan was studied based on the grey prediction model and polynomial model. The optimal model was selected by the principle of least absolute mean relative error, and future incidences were predicted. Results The reported incidence of hepatitis B in Hainan Province from 2015 to 2019 basically showed an annual upward trend, but a decreasing trend was observed in 2020. From 2017 to 2021, the reported incidence rates in the age groups of 0-<15 and 15-<30 showed a declining trend, while the incidence of the age groups of 60-<75 and ≥75 years old basically stabilized in Hainan. The annual average number and annual incidence of the population aged 30-<45 and 45-<60 were both higher. The male-to-female sex ratio of the annual average reported incidence of hepatitis B was approximately 2:1. Among the various occupations, the incidence was mainly among farmers, with an annual average proportion of hepatitis B of 43.06%. Regional disparities in the number of reported annual hepatitis B cases were found, with 5 cities decreasing year by year, 1 city increasing first and then decreasing, 2 cities being stable and other cities increasing year by year. The predicted incidence rates for 2022-2024 years were 127.43/100 000, 116.05/100 000, and 102.09/100 000, respectively. Conclusions In recent years, the incidence of hepatitis B among people under 30 years old in Hainan Province has shown a decreasing trend, indicating that policies such as hepatitis B vaccine included in the immunization program for children in Hainan have a good effect on the prevention and control of hepatitis B. Therefore, it is necessary to focus on strengthening the prevention and control of the high incidence rate in the age groups and gender. The existence of regional differences in the incidence of Hepatitis B suggests that comprehensive prevention and control measures should be continued to strengthen in areas where the incidence is increasing year by year, such as knowledge and health promotion of hepatitis B prevention and control, screening treatment, and vaccinatio.
- Full text:20250306113338932175.Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of hepatitis B in Hainan Province, 2015-2021.pdf
