Evaluation of colistin sulfate administration regimen based on PK/PD theory and Monte Carlo simulation
- VernacularTitle:基于药动学/药效学理论和蒙特卡罗模拟的硫酸黏菌素给药方案效果评价
- Author:
Yingchao MA
1
;
Xia WU
1
;
Yongjing WANG
1
;
Jianjun GU
2
;
Xiuling YANG
1
Author Information
1. Dept. of Pharmacy，the Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University，Shijiazhuang 050061，China
2. Dept. of Cardiac Surgery，the Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University，Shijiazhuang 050061，China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
colistin sulfate;
Gram-negative bacteria;
pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics theory;
Monte Carlo simulation
- From:
China Pharmacy
2025;36(4):459-463
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the therapeutic efficacy of 5 regimens of colistin sulfate for common Gram-negative bacilli infection based on pharmacokinetics （PK）/pharmacodynamics （PD） theory and Monte Carlo simulation. METHODS Minimal inhibitory concentration （MIC） data of colistin sulfate against Acinetobacter baumannii， Pseudomonas aeruginosa， Klebsiella pneumoniae， Escherichia coli and Enterobacter cloacae in 2023 were collected from the China Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance System. Monte Carlo simulation was conducted with the ratio of the area under the concentration-time curve from 0 to 24 hours in the unbound state to the MIC （fAUC0－24 h/MIC） ≥15 as the target value， the probabilities of target attainment （PTA） of 5 regimens of colistin sulfate to achieve the target ratio were obtained at different MIC； and the expected population PTA， specifically the cumulative fraction of response （CFR）， for each regimen within a specific bacterial population was further calculated， to evaluate the therapeutic efficacy of the five colistin sulfate regimens. RESULTS When bacterial MIC≤0.5 µg/mL， PTA of all colistin sulfate regimens （500 000 IU， q12 h； 500 000 IU， q8 h； 750 000 IU， q12 h； 750 000 IU， q8 h； 1 000 000 IU， q12 h） were all more than 90%. When bacterial MIC＝1 µg/mL， PTA for regimen （750 000 IU， q8 h） against A. baumannii， K. pneumoniae， P. aeruginosa， E. coli and E. cloacae， and for regimen （1 000 000 IU， q12 h） against the other four bacterial species （excluding P. aeruginosa） remained above 90%. When bacterial MIC≥2 µg/mL， PTA of 5 colistin sulfate regimens were all lower than 90%. For E. coli， the CFR of only colistin sulfate regimen （500 000 IU， q12 h） was less than 90%； for K. pneumoniae， the CFR of only colistin sulfate regimen （750 000 IU， q8 h and 1 000 000 IU， q12 h） was greater than 90%； for the other three bacteria， CFR of 5 regimens were all less than 90%. CONCLUSIONS When the MIC of Gram-negative bacteria is less than 0.5 µg/mL， colistin sulfate regimen with a routine dose can be selected for treatment. When MIC was 1 µg/mL， an increase in the dosing amount or frequency is required. The empirical treatment of the other four bacterial infections excluding E. coli requires the use of off-label doses.
