Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram model for patients with the lower third and abdominal oesophageal adenocarcinoma
- VernacularTitle:胸下段和腹部食管腺癌患者生存预后的列线图预测模型构建和验证
- Author:
Zhengshui XU
1
,
2
;
Dandan LIU
2
,
3
,
4
;
Jiantao JIANG
1
,
2
;
Ranran KONG
1
,
2
;
Jianzhong LI
1
,
2
;
Yuefeng MA
1
,
2
;
Zhenchuan MA
1
,
2
;
Jia CHEN
5
,
6
;
Minxia ZHU
7
,
8
;
Shaomin LI
1
,
2
Author Information
1. Department of Thoracic Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi an Jiaotong University, Xi'
2. an, 710004, P. R. China
3. Department of Oncology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'
4. an Jiaotong University, Xi'
5. Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Xijing Hospital, Airforce Medical University, Xi'
6. an, 710032, P. R. China
7. 1. Department of Thoracic Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi an Jiaotong University, Xi'
8. an, 710004, P. R. China 4. Department of Thoracic Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, 325000, Zhejiang, P. R. China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Esophageal adenocarcinoma;
prognosis;
nomogram model;
overall survival
- From:
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery
2025;32(02):201-207
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To establish an individualized nomogram model and evaluate its efficacy to provide a possible evaluation basis for the prognosis of lower third and abdominal part of oesophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Methods Lower third and abdominal part of EAC patients from 2010 to 2015 were chosen from the SEER Research Plus Database (17 Regs, 2022nov sub). The patients were randomly allocated to the training cohort and the internal validation cohort with a ratio of 7∶3 using bootstrap resampling. The Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to determine significant contributors to overall survival (OS) in EAC patients, which would be elected to construct the nomogram prediction model. C-index, calibration curve and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were performed to evaluate its efficacy. Finally, the efficacy to evaluate the OS of EAC patients was compared between the nomogram prediction model and TNM staging system. Results In total, 3945 patients with lower third and abdominal part of EAC were enrolled, including 3475 males and 470 females with a median age of 65 (57-72) years. The 2761 patients were allocated to the training cohort and the remaining 1184 patients to the internal validation cohort. In the training and the internal validation cohorts, the C-index of the nomogram model was 0.705 and 0.713, respectively. Meanwhile, the calibration curve also suggested that the nomogram model had a strong capability of predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates of EAC patients. The nomogram also had a higher efficacy than the TNM staging system in predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates of EAC patients. Conclusion This nomogram prediction model has a high efficiency for predicting OS in the patients with lower third and abdominal part of EAC, which is higher than that of the current TNM staging system.
