Construction and Validation of the Prediction Model for the First Cesarean Section Delivery in Multiparas
- VernacularTitle:经产妇首次经剖宫产分娩预测模型的构建与验证
- Author:
Xiaopeng XU
1
;
Yawen ZHANG
;
Minhong SHEN
;
Qin HUANG
Author Information
1. 苏州大学附属第一医院妇产科,江苏苏州 215006
- Keywords:
Multipara;
First cesarean section;
Prediction model;
Nomogram
- From:
Journal of Practical Obstetrics and Gynecology
2024;40(8):657-663
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To establish a predictive model of the first cesarean delivery in multiparous women based on the situation of two consecutive pregnancies.Methods:The data of patients with two consecutive deliv-eries of single live birth and the previous delivery was vaginal delivery in the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow U-niversity during the second delivery time range from January 1,2018 to December 31,2021 were retrospectively analyzed.According to whether the second pregnancy occurred cesarean section,the patients were divided into two groups(vaginal delivery group and cesarean section group).Univariate,stepwise,and multiple Logistic re-gression analyses were used to screen the influencing factors of multipara's first cesarean section delivery,and the prediction model was established.R language was used to build the model's nomogram and calibration curve.The bootstrap resampling method was used for internal verification.After establishing the model,clinical data of patients with two consecutive births of single live birth between January 1,2022 and April 1,2023 were retrospec-tively collected for external verification of the model.Results:①A total of 2709 patients were included in this study for modeling,of which 6.31％(171/2709)underwent cesarean section for the first time.603 cases were included for external verification.②According to univariate,stepwise and multivariate Logistic regression analysis,all the variables affecting the first delivery by cesarean section were screened out,including:abnormal labor in previous labor,age of current delivery,assisted reproductive technology,hypertension disorder complicating pregnancy,pregnancy with thrombocytopenia,oligohydramnios,excessive amniotic fluid,macrosomia,fetal growth restriction,abnormal fetal position,fetal distress,all of the above variables P＜0.05 and incorporated into the final prediction model.③The AUC of this model was 0.949(95％CI 0.928-0.969),and the calibration curve showed that the model intercept was 0 and the slope was 1.Hosmer-Lemeshow test had a P＞0.05,indicating that the model had a high accuracy.④The AUC of external validation was 0.958,the slope of the calibration curve was 0.972,and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test had a P of 0.49.Conclusions:The prediction model of the first delivery by cesarean section during the second pregnancy has been established.The prediction efficiency of the model is good,and it can provide a tool for the individualized evaluation of menstrual women in clinical work.
