Joinpoint regression analysis of hand， foot， and mouth disease trends in Zhangjiakou City， Hebei Province from 2013 to 2022
10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2024.24057
- VernacularTitle:2013—2022年河北省张家口市手足口病流行趋势Joinpoint回归分析
- Author:
Fei SUN
1
;
Xiaoli HAN
2
;
Tong SU
2
;
Xiaoyan LUO
2
;
Wen GAO
2
;
Tianman WANG
1
;
Qichen LIU
1
;
Dong YAN
3
;
Jinqin LI
1
Author Information
1. Zhangjiakou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zhangjiakou, Hebei 075000, China
2. Hebei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shijiazhuang, Hebei 050000, China
3. Hebei Plague Prevention and Control Institute, Zhangjiakou, Hebei 075000, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
hand-foot-mouth disease;
epidemiology;
etiology;
Joinpoint regression analysis
- From:
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine
2024;36(9):858-861
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province from 2013 to 2022, so as to provide a basis for HFMD prevention, control, and evaluation of intervention effectiveness. MethodsHFMD data of Zhangjiakou City from 2013 to 2022 were collected. Descriptive statistics and the Joinpoint regression model were used to analyze the trend of the epidemic. ResultsThe incidence of HFMD in Zhangjiakou was predicted to decrease with APC=-14.86% in 2013‒2022. The top five regions with the highest incidence showed varying trends: Qiaodong District (APC=-26.21%), Qiaoxi District (APC=-18.29%), Xuanhua District (APC=-14.28%), Chicheng District (APC=-18.68%), and Zhuolu County (APC=51.43% in 2013‒2016, APC=-14.27% in 2016‒2022), indicating a downward trend. Three age groups showed an upward trend in incidence: the 0-year-old group (APC=-42.82% in 2013‒2016, APC=16.54% in 2016‒2022), the 7-year-old group (AAPC=9.60%), and the 9-year-old group (AAPC=12.76%). HFMD cases occurred throughout the year, peaking from June to August, with July being the most significant month. The male-to-female ratio was1.40∶1, with no statistical difference (χ2=5.932, P>0.05). A high incidence was in children under 5 years old, with those aged 1‒4 years being the main affected group. In terms of occupation, scattered children (6 245 cases, 57.65%) and preschool children (3 653 cases, 33.72%) were the most affected. A total of 504 laboratory-confirmed cases were reported, with a detection rate of 4.65% (504/10 832). The composition of confirmed cases included CoxA 16 (193 cases, 38.29%), EV71 (75 cases, 14.88%), and other enteroviruses (236 cases, 46.83%). ConclusionFrom 2013 to 2022, HFMD in Zhangjiakou City showed a downward trend with clear seasonal, regional, and occupational distributions. It is suggested that epidemic monitoring should be strengthened, etiological detection should be enhanced, and education efforts in key areas should be improved. High-incidence counties should analyze data and conduct risk assessments effectively.
