Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for postoperative delirium in primary liver cancer patients aged 60 years or older
- VernacularTitle:60岁以上原发性肝癌患者术后谵妄发生风险预测模型的构建及验证
- Author:
Yao MA
1
;
Ting LI
;
Qiushi ZHANG
;
Ling HU
;
Jie ZHENG
Author Information
- Keywords: Liver Neoplasms; Hepatectomy; Delirious Speech; Aged; Logistic Models
- From: Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2024;40(9):1816-1821
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
- Abstract: Objective To construct a risk prediction model for postoperative delirium in elderly patients with primary liver cancer,and to validate its application value.Methods A retrospective analysis was performed for 175 elderly patients with primary liver cancer who were admitted to Tianyou Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology from March 2020 to January 2023.The incidence rate of postoperative delirium was recorded,and the univariate and multivariate regression analyses was performed for factors that may affect the onset of delirium.A prediction model was constructed,and the clinical application value of the prediction model was analyzed and validated.The independent-samples t test was used for comparison of continuous data between two groups,and the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups.The univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed for factors that may affect the onset of delirium in elderly patients with primary liver cancer,and the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to investigate the value of the model in predicting the onset of delirium.Results Among the 175 elderly patients with primary liver cancer,41 experienced postoperative delirium,with an incidence rate of 23.43%.The univariate analysis showed that age,presence of more than two underlying diseases,Child-Pugh class of liver function,preoperative blood lactate,time of operation,preoperative hemoglobin,and preoperative serum albumin were associated with the onset of postoperative delirium(t=3.534,χ2=12.000,χ2=4.938,t=7.561,t=5.768,t=5.141,t=6.148,P<0.05).The multivariate logistic regression analysis of the factors with statistical significance in the univariate analysis showed that time of operation,preoperative hemoglobin,preoperative serum albumin,and age were included in the regression model(P<0.05),and they were independent risk factors for the onset of postoperative delirium in elderly patients with primary liver cancer.According to the results of the multivariate logistic regression analysis,a prediction model for postoperative delirium in elderly patients with primary liver cancer was constructed as follows:-2.222+3.678×time of operation-2.441×preoperative hemoglobin-3.904×preoperative serum albumin+1.807×age.The prediction performance of this model was analyzed,with an area under the ROC curve of 0.931(95%confidence interval:0.890-0.971,P<0.001)and an optimal cut-off value of-1.604(with a sensitivity of 87.80%and a specificity of 87.30%).A total of 56 elderly patients with primary liver cancer who underwent radical surgery in Tianyou Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology from February 2023 to June 2023 were enrolled in a prospective study for model validation.According to the above risk prediction model,there were 14 patients in the high-risk group and 42 patients in the low-risk group,and the high-risk group had a significantly higher incidence rate of postoperative delirium than the low-risk group(71.43%vs 11.90%,χ2=16.056,P<0.05).Conclusion Age,time of operation,preoperative serum albumin,and preoperative hemoglobin are important influencing factors for the onset of postoperative delirium in elderly patients with primary liver cancer.The risk prediction model based on these factors has a good prediction performance,which holds promise for further in-depth research.
