Risk prediction model of enteral nutrition intolerance in elderly patients with severe pneumonia in intensive care unit
10.3969/j.issn.1673-9701.2024.11.018
- VernacularTitle:重症监护病房老年重症肺炎患者肠内营养不耐受的风险预测模型
- Author:
Weiwei WEI
1
;
Na ZHAO
1
;
Zesang SUN
1
;
Yadi SHAO
1
Author Information
1. Intensive Care Unit, First Affiliated Hospital of Ningbo University, Ningbo 315010, Zhejiang, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Severe pneumonia in the elderly;
Enteral nutrition intolerance;
Risk factors;
Prediction model
- From:
China Modern Doctor
2024;62(11):78-81,89
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the risk factors of enteral nutrition intolerance in elderly patients with severe pneumonia(SP)in intensive care unit(ICU)and construct its prediction model.Methods A total of 140 elderly patients with severe pneumonia in ICU ward of the First Affiliated Hospital of Ningbo University from January 2021 to December 2022 were selected.According to the tolerance of enteral nutrition,they were divided into tolerance group(n=82)and intolerance group(n=58).Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the risk factors of enteral nutrition intolerance in elderly patients with severe pneumonia in ICU.The risk prediction model was constructed,and the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was drawn to evaluate the prediction effect of the model.Results Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that acute gastrointestinal injury(AGI),intra-abdominal pressure(IAP),and the use of antibiotics≥2 were independent influencing factors of enteral nutrition intolerance in elderly patients with severe pneumonia in ICU(P<0.05).The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was used to evaluate the fitting effect of the equation.The area under the curve was 0.867(95%CI:0.750-0.984),the sensitivity was 87.8%,and the specificity was 85.1%.Conclusion The risk prediction model constructed in this study can effectively predict the risk of enteral nutrition intolerance in elderly patients with severe pneumonia in ICU.
