Risk factors for shunt dependent hydrocephalus in patients with traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage and establishment of their nomogram prediction model
10.3760/cma.j.cn115354-20220629-00457
- VernacularTitle:创伤性蛛网膜下腔出血并发分流依赖性脑积水危险因素分析及列线图预测模型的构建
- Author:
Yi SUN
1
;
Xi WANG
;
Xingdong LIU
;
Xiefeng WANG
;
Yongping YOU
;
Wei YAN
Author Information
1. 南京医科大学第一附属医院神经外科，南京 210000
- Keywords:
Traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage;
Shunt dependent hydrocephalus;
Risk factor;
Nomogram
- From:
Chinese Journal of Neuromedicine
2022;21(10):1019-1025
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To explore the risk factors for shunt dependent hydrocephalus (SDHC) in patients with traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (tSAH) and establish their risk nomogram model.Methods:Two hundred and sixty-nine patients with tSAH, admitted to our hospital from February 2018 to February 2022, were chosen in our study. All patients were followed up for 3 months after discharge; 51 patients were complicated with SDHC and 218 patients were not complicated with SDHC. The clinical data of patients with and without SDHC were compared. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the independent influencing factors for SDHC in tSAH patients; according to the results of multivariate Logistic regression analysis, a nomogram model was constructed to predict SDHC in tSAH patients; and the consistency index (C-index) and calibration curve were used to evaluate the predictive performance and compliance of the nomogram model.Results:As compared with patients without SDHC group, patients with SDHC had significantly lower Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores on admission, and significantly higher proportions of patients with cerebral hernia, diffuse tSAH, tSAH thickness ≥5 mm, intraventricular hemorrhage, midline shift>12 mm, and epidural effusion at discharge, and patients accepted decompressive craniectomy ( P<0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that GCS scores of 13-15 ( OR=0.134, 95%CI: 0.024-0.740, P=0.021), diffuse tSAH ( OR=4.391, 95%CI: 1.680-11.475, P=0.003), tSAH thickness≥5 mm ( OR=4.114, 95%CI: 1.689-10.018, P=0.002), decompressive craniectomy ( OR=3.283, 95%CI: 1.278-8.433, P=0.014) and epidural hydrops ( OR=3.302, 95%CI: 1.137-9.593, P=0.028) were independent influencing factors for SDHC in tSAH patients. A nomogram model established based on the above 5 influencing factors showed high predictive accuracy with C-index of 0.877. Conclusion:The tSAH patients with low GCS scores at admission, diffuse tSAH, tSAH thickness≥5 mm, and epidural effusion, and patients accepted decompressive craniectomy are prone to have SDHC; the nomogram model based on the above variables has a high efficiency in predicting the risk of tSAH complicated with SDHC.
