Risk factors for bleeding events in patients with cirrhosis-associate esophageal and gastric varices
10.19405/j.cnki.issn1000-1492.2024.01.024
- Author:
Xue Bai
1
;
Xiaoyan Liu
1
;
Wenjun Du
1
;
Zhongfa Zhang
1
Author Information
1. Dept of Liver Diseases，Shandong Public Health Clinical Center Affiliated to Shandong University，Jinan 250000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
liver cirrhosis;
esophagogastric varices bleeding;
Child-Pugh scores;
risk factors
- From:
Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui
2024;59(1):149-153
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective :To detect the risk factors for bleeding in patients with cirrhosis and esophageal and gastric varices (EGV) and better understand the potentially life-threatening complications．
Methods : Retrospectively， and a total of 309 patients with cirrhosis and EGV were enrolled in this study and were divided into the observation group and control based on EGV bleeding or not．Meanwhile，the patients＇epidemiological，clinical，laboratory， and radiological characteristics were collected and analyzed to construct a prediction model．The bootstrap method could be used to validate predictive models and the ROC curves to evaluate its forecasting ability.
Results :High- density lipoprotein (HDL) (P＜0. 001，OR = 0. 131，95% CI = 0. 049－0. 350) ，C-reactive protein ( CRP) (P = 0. 010，OR = 2. 657，95% CI = 1. 269－5. 563) ，the width of portal vein (PVW) (P = 0. 050，OR = 1. 156，95% CI = 1. 000 －1. 336) ，the thickness of spleen (P = 0. 035，OR = 1. 492，95% CI = 1. 028 －2. 165) ，Child-Pugh grade B (P = 0. 003 ，OR = 11. 320，95% CI = 2. 232 －57. 407 ) and Child-Pugh grade C ( P = 0. 002 ，OR = 3. 888，95% CI = 1. 659－9. 114) were significantly associated with the occurrence of EGV bleeding．The AUC of the predictive risk model in the modeling group was 0. 802，and the validation group was 0. 836．
Conclusion : The lower HDL and higher CRP，PVW，the thickness of the spleen，Child-Pugh grade B and C are the risk factors for the occurrence of EGV bleeding.
- Full text:2024062509135677124肝硬化合并食管胃底静脉曲张...发生破裂出血的危险因素分析_白雪.pdf
