Estimating risk of atherosclerotic stroke with nomogram based on multi parameter characteristics

Liuping CUI; Yingqi XING

白话标题:基于多参数特征构建列线图评估动脉粥样硬化性卒中风险
作者: Liuping CUI ¹ ; Yingqi XING ¹
作者信息

1. Xuanwu Hospital,Capital Medical University,Beijing 100053,China
出版类型:Journal Article
关键字: Carotid stenosis; Ischemic stroke; Multi parameter characteristics; Nomogram
来源: Journal of Apoplexy and Nervous Diseases 2023;40(1):39-43
国家China
语言:Chinese
摘要: Objective To construct an nomogram model for predicting the risk of ischemic stroke in patients with carotid stenosis,and verify its predictive efficacy. Methods Retrospective collection of 720 patients hospitalized in the First Hospital of Jilin University and Xuanwu Hospital from August 2018 to January 2021.The patients were divided into symptomatic group and asymptomatic group according to their clinical manifestations and imaging examination.The clinical data and carotid ultrasound characteristics were collected,and the risk factors of ischemic stroke in patients with carotid artery stenosis were analyzed by LASSO regression analysis and multivariate Logistic regression analysis.The nomogram model for predicting the risk of ischemic stroke in patients with carotid stenosis was constructed using R4.2.2 "rms" package.Bootstrap method was used to repeatedly sample 1 000 times for internal verification.Consistency index,H-L goodness of fit test and calibration curve were used to evaluate the prediction efficiency of the nomogram model. Results Of 720 patients,295 were classified as symptomatic group,and 425 were classified as asymptomatic group.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that hypertension,diabetes,smoking,the degree of carotid stenosis,plaque echogenicity,morphology and thickness were independent risk factors for ischemic stroke in patients with carotid artery stenosis (P<0.05).The nomogram model was constructed based on the above seven risk factors.The ROC curve analysis results showed that the AUC of the nomogram model predicting the risk of ischemic stroke in patients with carotid stenosis was 0.801 (95%CI 0.769-0.833).Bootstrap method was used for internal verification,and the results showed that the consistency index was 0.793.The calibration curve analysis showed that the calibration curve of the nomogram model is close to the ideal curve. Conclusion The nomogram model based on vascular risk factors and carotid ultrasound characteristics in this study has a high degree of differentiation and calibration in predicting the risk of ischemic stroke in patients with carotid stenosis,which is helpful for clinicians to stratify the risk of patients.
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