Tool for tracking all-cause mortality and estimating excess mortality to support the COVID-19 pandemic response
10.5365/wpsar.2022.13.2.921
- Author:
Mengjuan Duan
1
,
2
;
Mark S Handcock
3
;
Bart Blackburn
3
;
Fiona Kee
1
,
2
;
Viema Biaukula
4
;
Tamano Matsui
4
;
Babatunde Olowokure
4
Author Information
1. Division of Data, Strategy &
2. Innovation Team, World Health Organization Regional Office for the Western Pacific, Manila, Philippines
3. Department of Statistics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, United States of America
4. Division of Health Security and Emergencies, World Health Organization Regional Office for the Western Pacific, Manila, Philippines
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- From:
Western Pacific Surveillance and Response
2022;13(2):36-42
- CountryWHO-WPRO
- Language:English
-
Abstract:
Problem:Quantifying mortality from coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is difficult, especially in countries with limited resources. Comparing mortality data between countries is also challenging, owing to differences in methods for reporting mortality.
Context:Tracking all-cause mortality (ACM) and comparing it with expected ACM from pre-pandemic data can provide an estimate of the overall burden of mortality related to the COVID-19 pandemic and support public health decision-making. This study validated an ACM calculator to estimate excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Action:The ACM calculator was developed as a tool for computing expected ACM and excess mortality at national and subnational levels. It was developed using R statistical software, was based on a previously described model that used non-parametric negative binomial regression and was piloted in several countries. Goodness-of-fit was validated by forecasting 2019 mortality from 2015–2018 data.
Outcome:Three key lessons were identified from piloting the tool: using the calculator to compare reported provisional ACM with expected ACM can avoid potential false conclusions from comparing with historical averages alone; using disaggregated data at the subnational level can detect excess mortality by avoiding dilution of total numbers at the national level; and interpretation of results should consider system-related performance indicators.
Discussion:Timely tracking of ACM to estimate excess mortality is important for the response to COVID-19. The calculator can provide countries with a way to analyse and visualize ACM and excess mortality at national and subnational levels.
- Full text:wpsar-13-921 FINAL.pdf
