Trend and forecast analysis of maternal mortality rate in Hainan Province, 2003-2022
- Author:
HUANG Cuimin
;
WU Guihua
;
ZHAN Huiyu
;
DOU Qianru
;
CAO Xia
;
FAN Xialin
;
CHENG Lengmei
;
LIU Shen
;
FAN Lichun
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Maternal mortality rate;
trends;
prediction；hainan province
- From:
China Tropical Medicine
2023;23(11):1164-
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Abstract: Objective To explore the trend of maternal mortality in Hainan Province during the period of 2003-2022, both in the province and in urban and rural areas, and to forecast the maternal mortality rate for the period 2023-2025. Methods The 2003-2022 data collected from Hainan Province's three-tier network for maternal mortality surveillance was examined using the Chi-square test for trend (CMH) to analyze the province-wide and urban-rural maternal mortality trends. The time series model forecasting using exponential smoothing was used to predict the maternal mortality rate in Hainan Province from 2023 to 2025. Results From 2003 to 2022, a total of 201 011 616 live births and 463 maternal deaths were reported in Hainan Province, with a maternal mortality rate of 23.03 per 100 000. Over 20 years, the maternal mortality rate in Hainan Province showed a downward trend, with an annual rate of decline of -4.13%. The rate decreased significantly during this period.. From 2003 to 2022, the maternal mortality rate in rural areas of Hainan Province was 25.74/100 000 (373/1 448 943), and it was significantly higher than that in urban areas, 16.04/100 000 (90/561 173). In the first 10 years, the gap between urban and rural areas progressively reduced, but it widened significantly in the last decade, especially after 2017. The maternal mortality rate was significantly lower in urban than rural areas, and the differences had statistical significance. The annual rates of decline in maternal mortality in Hainan Province and in urban and rural areas from 2003 to 2022 were -5.0% and -3.71%, respectively, showing a negative growth with the decrease rate in rural areas lower than urban areas. The maternal mortality rate in Hainan Province showed a fluctuating downward trend, different from the stable trend of national decrease. The mortality rates for direct obstetric causes of death (233 cases) and indirect obstetric causes of death (230 cases) were 11.59/100 000 and 11.44/100 000, respectively. The results of the maternal mortality review showed a predominance of avoidable deaths (315 cases, 68.03%). Brown's cubic exponential smoothing predicted the maternal mortality rate in Hainan Province for 2023-2025 as 9.45/100 000, 8.17/100 000, and 6.89/100 000. Conclusions The maternal mortality rate in Hainan Province is largely influenced by maternal deaths in rural areas, and maternal health care in rural areas should be emphasized. Measures such as intervening to address the main factors influencing avoidable maternal deaths, strengthening high-risk maternal management, improving the level of critical maternal care, and providing subsidies for critical maternal care can sustainably reduce the maternal mortality rate in Hainan.
- Full text:7.Trend and forecast analysis of maternal mortality rate in Hainan Province, 2003-2022.pdf
