Development of a prognostic model for early diagnosis of HEV infection in patients with chronic liver disease
10.3760/cma.j.cn114452-20231204-00324
- VernacularTitle:戊型肝炎病毒感染慢性肝病人群重症化早期临床预测模型的构建与应用
- Author:
Yazhou XU
1
;
Wenjun CHEN
;
Bo HU
Author Information
1. 中山大学附属第三医院检验科，广州 510600
- Keywords:
Hepevirus;
Hepatitis, chronic;
Superinfection;
Nomogram
- From:
Chinese Journal of Laboratory Medicine
2024;47(3):252-258
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To establish an early clinical prediction model for patients with chronic liver disease who are coinfected with hepatitis E virus (HEV), and quickly evaluate the probability of severe hepatitis in patients.Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted on 87 patients with chronic liver diseases who were hospitalized at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University from May 2018 to September 2023. Clinical features and laboratory indexes were analyszed and patients were classified to severe (TBIL >171 μmol/L with PTA <40%) and non-severe (TBIL <171 μmol/L with PTA >40%) groups. and Independent factors identified using LASSO regression were incorporated into a novel nomogram to identify patients at high risk of severe hepatitis in the early stages. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated using the area under the curve and the mean absolute error of the calibration curve.Results:Significant difference was observed in the serum total bile acid (TBA) level between the severe group [240.00 (183.30, 268.70) umol/L] and the non-severe group [93.40 (20.10, 271.70) μmol/L, U=269.00, P=0.002]. Additionally, the levels of apolipoprotein A1 (APOA1) [0.32 (0.18, 0.48) g/L] and uric acid (UA) [156.15 (117.00, 202.00) μmol/L] were significantly lower in the severe group compared to the non-severe group (APOA1: [0.77 (0.63, 1.06) g/L, U=71.00, P<0.001]; UA: [334.05 (243.70, 401.00) μmol/L, U=83.00, P<0.001]). The researchers developed a nomogram, which incorporated two independent factors (APOA1 and UA) and an additional variable (TBA), exhibiting a strong predictive ability, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.963 (95% confidence interval: 0.927-0.998) and a well-fitted calibration curve. Positive and negative predictive values of 94.0% and 88.2% were calculated, and a nomogram score of 129 or greater was considered indicative of a higher likelihood of developing severe illness. Conclusions:This nomogram offers a rapid and accurate means of evaluating the probability of severe illness in patients with chronic liver disease after overlapping infection with HEV, which can accurately and effectively predict the risk of severe illness in patients.
