Influencing factor analysis and prediction model establishment of Gleason group upgrading after radical prostatectomy of localized prostate cancer
10.3760/cma.j.cn112330-20211231-00661
- VernacularTitle:局限性前列腺癌根治手术后Gleason分组升级的因素及预测模型的建立
- Author:
Qiang LI
1
;
Changbao XU
;
Xinghua ZHAO
;
Wuxue LI
;
Pei CHENG
Author Information
1. 郑州大学第二附属医院泌尿外科，郑州 450000
- Keywords:
Prostatic neoplasms;
Carcinoma;
Prostatectomy;
Biopsy, Needle;
Pathology;
Nomogram
- From:
Chinese Journal of Urology
2023;44(10):761-766
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To explore the independent influencing factors of Gleason group upgrading (GGU)after radical prostatectomy (RP) of localized prostate cancer based on 2014 International Society of Urologic Pathology (ISUP)grouping system, then establish an effective prediction model.Methods:The study included 48567 patients with localized prostate cancer who underwent radical prostatectomy from the surveillance, epidemiology and end results (SEER) database. The age was (61.1±7.0) years, including 39 014 cases (80.3%), 7 063 cases (14.5%), 2 331 cases (4.8%), and 159 cases (0.3%) of White, Black, Asian or Pacific Islander, American Indian/Alaska Native. PSA<4 ng/ml, 4-10 ng/ml, 11-19 ng/ml, ≥20 ng/ml were 6 545 cases (13.5%), 35 007 cases (72.1%), 5 578 cases (11.5%), 1 437 cases (3.0%) respectively. Percent positive cores (PPC)≥33% were 24 743 cases (50.9%). Gleason group of biopsy specimen: G1 18 971cases (39.1%), G2 18 446 cases (38.0%), G3 7 093 cases (14.6%), G4 4 057 cases (8.4%). Simple random sampling was assigned to the cases, divided them into training cohort and internal validation cohort according to the ratio of 7∶3. 67 patients with localized prostate cancer who treated in The Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University during January 2017 to December 2021 were set as external validation cohort. All these cases were Asian with Chinese nationality, age(66.4±10.3) years. PSA<4 ng/ml, 4-10 ng/ml, 11-19 ng/ml, ≥20 ng/ml were 13 cases (19.4%), 32 cases (47.8%)16 cases (23.9%), 6 cases (9.0%) respectively. PPC≥33% were 38 cases (56.7%). Gleason group of biopsy specimen: G1 18 cases (26.9%), G2 23cases (34.3%), G3 12 cases (17.9%), G4 14 cases (20.9%). The independent predictors of GGU were analyzed by logistic regression analysis, and the nomogram for predicting GGU were established. Then, the performance of nomograms was internally and externally validated via area under curve (AUC) and the calibration curve.Results:There were 8 716 cases (25.6%), 3 677 cases (25.2%) and 24 cases (35.8%) with GGU in the training group, internal validation group and external validation group, respectively. Logistic regression showed Gleason group of biopsy specimen (G2: OR=0.164, P<0.01; G3: OR=0.073, P<0.01; G4: OR=0.087, P<0.01), PSA (4-10 ng/ml: OR=1.550, P<0.01; 11-19 ng/ml: OR=2.084, P<0.01; ≥20 ng/ml: OR=2.664, P<0.01), age (60-69 years: OR=1.292, P<0.01; ≥70 years: OR=1.550, P<0.01), PPC (≥33%: OR=1.334, P<0.01) and race (Asian or Pacific Islander: OR=1.266, P<0.01) were independent influencing factors for GGU. The predicting model, was established according to Gleason group of biopsy specimen, PSA, age and PPC. The AUC of the model in the training cohort, the internal validation cohort and the external validation cohort were 0.759, 0.757 and 0.747 respectively. The calibration curves of the three cohorts were close to the ideal line and showed good consistency. Conclusions:Gleason group of biopsy specimen, PSA, age, PPC and race are independent influencing factors for GGU after RP of localized prostate cancer. G. P.A.P. model can effectively predict the risk of GGU after RP of localized prostate cancer.
