Risk factors of recurrence after transperineal anastomotic urethroplasty of post-traumatic urethral stricture patients and construction of a nomogram: a retrospective study
10.3760/cma.j.cn112330-20230626-00232
- VernacularTitle:外伤致尿道狭窄患者经会阴入路尿道重建术后复发的危险因素分析及其预测模型的构建
- Author:
Ya LI
1
;
Banghua LIAO
;
Liang ZHOU
;
Yucheng MA
;
Kunjie WANG
Author Information
1. 四川大学华西医院泌尿外科 泌尿外科研究所泌尿系修复与重建研究室，成都 610041
- Keywords:
Urethral stricture;
Recurrence;
Forecasting;
Reconstructive surgical procedures
- From:
Chinese Journal of Urology
2023;44(8):571-576
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To explore the risk factors for urethral stricture after transperineal anastomotic urethroplasty (TAU) by retrospectively analyzing patient data and to develop a nomogram to predict the risk of recurrence before the surgery.Methods:Clinical data of patients who underwent TAU because of post-traumatic urethral stricture from January 2016 to December 2017 in West China Hospital, Sichuan University were reviewd. A total of 78 patients were included in the retrospective analysis, with 13 of them having recurrence. The patients in the recurrence group had a median age of 49.8 and 76.9% (10/13) of them had membranous urethral stricture. The proximal urethra end was located above the superior margin of the pubic ramus (higher stricture site) in 53.8%(7/13)of patients in the recurrence group and the length of the stricture measured in the operation was (2.19±0.22) cm. In the non-recurrence group, the median age was (44.8±13.6) years old, 58.5% (38/65) of them had membranous urethral stricture, 21.5% (14/65) had higher stricture site, and the length of the stricture was (2.03±0.11) cm. Both univariate and multivariate logistics analyses were performed to evaluate the risk factors of recurrence of urethral stricture 5 years after surgery. The nomogram was built based on the multivariate logistics analysis. The Concordance Index (C-index), Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC) curve and Calibration curve were used to evaluate the nomogram.Results:Univariate logistics analysis showed that higher stricture site, history of urethral dilation, smoking, diabetes and total serum protein may be associated with recurrence after surgery. Multivariate logistics analysis further confirmed that higher stricture site ( OR=34.64, 95% CI 3.71-754.53), history of urethral dilation( OR=13.15, 95% CI 1.27-210.00), smoking ( OR=13.75, 95% CI 2.15-166.05) and diabetes ( OR=64.98, 95% CI 3.80-1957.60) were independent risk factors for recurrent urethral stricture while higher total serum protein before surgery was related to lower recurrence risk ( OR=0.78, 95% CI 0.62-0.93). A nomogram was built based on the results. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.923(95% CI 0.908-0.938), the area under curve (AUC) was 0.923 (95% CI 0.855-0.991), and the Brier Score was 0.079. Conclusion:Higher stricture site, history of urethral dilation before surgery, smoking, diabetes and lower total serum protein before surgery are associated with higher recurrence TAU of post-traumatic urethral stricture patients. With the nomogram developed, prediction of the risk of recurrence could be achieved prior surgery.
