A prediction model for postoperative 30-day complications in elderly patients with hip fracture based on a nomogram
10.3760/cma.j.cn115530-20230526-00265
- VernacularTitle:基于列线图的老年髋部骨折患者术后30 d并发症预测模型的研究
- Author:
Fengpo SUN
1
;
Xiangxue LIU
;
Ze ZHANG
;
Tongyi ZHANG
;
Quan JI
;
Liangyuan WEN
Author Information
1. 北京医院骨科，国家老年医学中心，中国医学科学院老年医学研究院，北京 100730
- Keywords:
Hip fractures;
Fracture fixation, intramedullary;
Arthroplasty, replacement, hip;
Postoperative complications;
Risk factors;
Nomogram;
Aged
- From:
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedic Trauma
2023;25(9):770-776
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To establish a visualized nomogram which can predict the rate of 30-day complications in the elderly patients after hip fracture.Methods:A retrospective study was conducted to analyze the clinical data of 1,074 patients with hip fracture aged 60 years and over who had been admitted to Department of Orthopedics, Beijing Hospital from January 2010 to December 2017. There were 335 males and 739 females with an average age of (80.3±7.3) yeas, 529 intertrochanteric fractures of the femur (all fixed with intramedullary nails after closed reduction), and 545 femoral neck fractures (including 470 ones treated with artificial femoral head replacement and 75 ones treated with artificial total hip replacement). The duration between injury to operation was (6.2±3.7) d. After the complications within 30 days after surgery were recorded, the risk factors for postoperative complications were screened using the binary multi-factor logistic regression analysis. The visualized nomogram and calibration graph were established with the risk factors screened.Results:Of the 1,074 patients, 28.49% (306/1,074) suffered from 30-day complications. The multivariate regression analysis showed that age ( OR=1.050, 95% CI: 1.022 to 1.080, P=0.001), time from injury to surgery ( OR=1.043, 95% CI: 1.005 to 1.083, P=0.027), white blood cell count ( OR=1.093, 95% CI: 1.033 to 1.158, P=0.002), serum albumin level ( OR=0.930, 95% CI: 0.883 to 0.980, P=0.007), troponin I ( OR=195.983, 95% CI: 2.224 to 17,268.296, P=0.021), respiratory system comorbidities ( OR=2.020, 95% CI: 1.287 to 3.170, P=0.002),cardiovascular comorbidities ( OR=1.388, 95% CI: 1.098 to 1.754, P=0.006), and neurological system comorbidities ( OR=1.778, 95% CI: 1.346 to 2.349, P<0.001) were the risk factors for 30-day complications after surgery in elderly patients with hip fracture. Based on these risk factors, a nomogram was created, with an area under the curve of 0.714. The calibration graph showed that the incidence predicted was close to that measured. Conclusion:The present study has established a visualized nomogram which can predict the rate of 30-day complications in the elderly patients after hip fracture based on age, time from injury to surgery, white blood cell count, serum albumin levels, troponin I, and cardiovascular, respiratory and neurological complications.
