Cox regression analysis of postoperative prognostic factors and construction of nomogram prediction model for patients with aortic dissection
10.3760/cma.j.cn101721-20230828-00045
- VernacularTitle:主动脉夹层患者术后死亡影响因素的Cox回归分析及列线图预测模型的构建
- Author:
Ziya XIAO
1
;
Xinyan WANG
;
Meng SHI
;
Teng LI
;
Fanliang MENG
;
Tingting LYU
Author Information
1. 济宁医学院附属医院急诊科，济宁 272029
- Keywords:
Aortic dissection;
Cox regression analysis;
Nomogram
- From:
Clinical Medicine of China
2024;40(1):53-59
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To explore the related prognostic factors in patients with aortic dissection (AD) after surgery or interventional therapy, and to construct a multi-factor Cox regression analysis nomogram prediction model.Methods:The clinical data of patients diagnosed with AD in the emergency department of Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical University of Shandong Province from January 2019 to December 2021 were collected to analyze retrospectively. The survival time was followed up, the survival curve was drawn by Kaplan-Meier method, the difference of survival rate among different Stanford types was tested by Log-Rank test, and Cox regression univariate and multivariate survival analysis was used to screen the prognostic factors. According to the results of multivariate analysis, the death risk nomogram model after AD was established, the differentiation of the model was evaluated by C-index, the accuracy of the model was evaluated by calibration curve, and the clinical benefit of the model was evaluated by decision curve analysis (DCA).Results:A total of 256 patients with AD were included, the mortality rate was 4.45% (37/256), and the overall survival rates at 3 months, 6 months and 12 months after operation were 90.23%, 87.50% and 85.55%, respectively. There was no significant difference in postoperative survival rate among AD patients with different Stanford types (χ 2=2.30, P=0.13). Cox multivariate regression analysis showed that history of hypertension ( HR=3.791, 95% CI 1.150-12.501, P=0.029), number of branch vessels involved ( HR=1.210, 95% CI 1.029-1.422, P=0.021), preoperative left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ( HR=0.936, 95% CI 0.880-0.996, P=0.038) and perioperative complications ( HR=4.024, 95% CI 1.839-8.807, P<0.001) were independent prognostic factors in patients with AD. Furthermore, the predictive nomogram model of 3-month, 6-month and 12-month survival rate in patients with AD was constructed, and the C-index was 0.778. The calibration curve indicated that the accuracy of the model was good, and the clinical benefit of the DCA model was good. Conclusions:Hypertension history, the number of branch vessels involved, preoperative LVEF and perioperative complications are independent risk factors of postoperative death in patients with AD. The nomogram prediction model based on the above factors can be used to evaluate the postoperative survival of patients with AD.
