Establishment and Evaluation of Nomogram for Risk Factors of Colorectal Adenoma
10.11969/j.issn.1673-548X.2023.12.031
- VernacularTitle:结直肠腺瘤危险因素列线图的建立与评价
- Author:
Wentao DU
1
;
Xin GUAN
;
Yajie XU
Author Information
1. 266011 青岛市市立医院消化内二科
- Keywords:
Colorectal adenoma;
Risk factors;
Nomograms;
Prediction model
- From:
Journal of Medical Research
2023;52(12):154-160
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the risk factors of colorectal adenoma,construct a nomogram prediction model for the risk of colo-rectal adenoma,and evaluate its predictive efficiency.Methods A total of 1066 patients who underwent colonoscopy in Qingdao Munici-pal Hospital from January 2018 to June 2019 were collected retrospectively.Among them,496 patients who were pathologically diagnosed with colorectal adenoma were included in the adenoma group,the other 570 patients had no obvious abnormality in colonoscopy,or patho-logical diagnosis of inflammatory or hyperplastic polyps were included in the non-adenoma group.The independent risk factors for color-ectal adenoma were analyzed by univariate and multivariate analysis;R software was used to establish a nomogram model for predicting the risk of colorectal adenoma,and the Bootstrap method was used for internal validation of the model.The Calibration curve and receiver op-erator characteristic curve was used to evaluate the predictive efficiency of the nomogram.Results The results of univariate and multiva-riate analysis showed that advanced age(OR=1.068,95％CI:1.049-1.087,P＜0.001),male(OR=0.593,95％CI:0.396-0.886,P=0.011),alcoholism(OR=1.847,95％CI:1.085-3.144,P=0.024),family history of tumor(OR=1.778,95％CI:1.241-2.547,P=0.002),changes in bowel habit(OR=3.508,95％CI:2.496-4.930,P＜0.001),diabetes(OR=1.832,95％CI:1.179-2.846,P=0.007),high neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio(OR=2.861,95％CI:2.055-3.982,P＜0.001),high carcino-embryonic antigen(OR=1.391,95％CI:1.229-1.574,P＜0.001)were independent risk factor for colorectal adenoma.The C-in-dex of the nomogram prediction model was 0.780,and the C-index of the validation model was 0.774.Conclusion The nomogram pre-diction model constructed in this study has high prediction accuracy,which can provide a basis for screening high-risk groups of colorec-tal adenoma and provide a reference for clinicians before endoscopy.
