Analysis of autoimmune related risk factors for poor short-term prognosis in patients with demyelinating disease of central nervous system
10.3760/cma.j.cn115455-20230213-00113
- VernacularTitle:中枢神经系统脱髓鞘疾病短期预后不良的自身免疫相关危险因素分析
- Author:
Ningning WANG
1
;
Ning FENG
;
Shunfeng ZHAO
;
Xin ZHAO
;
Longfei ZHAO
;
Shihe JIANG
;
Haoxiao CHANG
;
Xiaodong ZHU
Author Information
1. 天津医科大学总医院神经内科，天津 300041
- Keywords:
Demyelinating autoimmune diseases, CNS;
Prognosis;
Risk factors
- From:
Chinese Journal of Postgraduates of Medicine
2023;46(11):1041-1046
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the immunology-related risk factors for short-term prognosis in patients with demyelinating diseases of central nervous system, and to evaluate their predictive value.Methods:From January 2012 to October 2022 in Beijing Tiantan Hospital of Capital Medical University and General Hospital of Tianjin Medical University, the clinical data of 362 patients with demyelinating diseases of central nervous system were analyzed, including neuromyelitis optic spectrum disease (NMOSD) 181 cases, multiple sclerosis (MS) 129 cases, anti-myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody associated disease (MOGAD) 38 cases, acute disseminated encephalomyelopathy (ADEM) 14 cases. According to the expanded disability status scale (EDSS) score at discharge, the patients were divided into good prognosis group (EDSS≤3 scores, 267 cases) and poor prognosis group (EDSS>3 scores, 95 cases). The clinical data, admission severity (admission EDSS score), treatment, autoantibodies and immunoglobulin level and serum inflammatory factor level were compared between two groups. Multivariate Logistic regression was used to analyze the independent risk factors of short-term prognosis in patients with demyelinating diseases of central nervous system; and the predictive efficacy was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.Results:Compared with the good prognosis group, the admission EDSS score in the poor prognosis group was significantly higher: 2.5 (1.5) scores vs. 6.5 (3.5) scores. The positive rates of autoimmune disease-related antibody, systemic autoantibody, anti-nuclear antibody, anti-extractable nuclear antigen antibody, thyroid peroxidase antibody and thyroid globulin antibody were significantly higher: 89.5% (85/95) vs. 59.6% (159/267), 75.8% (72/95) vs. 52.1% (139/267), 65.3% (62/95) vs. 38.6% (103/267), 42.1% (40/95) vs. 23.2% (62/267), 40.0% (38/95) vs. 19.1% (51/267) and 42.1% (40/95) vs. 19.9% (53/267). The serum IgM was significantly lower: 0.84 (0.78) g/L vs. 1.00 (0.75) g/L. The serum tumor necrosis factor-α, interleukin-2 receptor and cerebrospinal fluid IgG were significantly higher: 8 055 (3 118) pg/L vs. 6 830 (3 515) pg/L, 348 (175) kU/L vs. 314 (146) kU/L and 47.50 (46.50) g/L vs. 33.00 (24.00) g/L. And there were statistical differences ( P<0.01 or <0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis result showed that the admission EDSS score and anti-nuclear antibody positive were the independent risk factors of short-term prognosis in patients with demyelinating diseases of central nervous system ( OR = 5.034 and 6.942, 95% CI 3.289 to 7.705 and 2.250 to 21.422, P<0.01). ROC curve analysis result showed that the area under the curve of anti-nuclear antibody positive combined with admission EDSS score predicted the short-term prognosis in patients with demyelinating diseases of central nervous system was 0.972, with a sensitivity of 90.5%, and a specificity of 92.5%. Conclusions:The admission EDSS score and anti-nuclear antibody positive are the independent risk factors for poor prognosis in patients with demyelinating diseases of central nervous system. And the combination of two indexes can better predict the short-term prognosis.
