Predictive analysis of internet-based oncology outpatient visits trend based on ARIMA and GM(1,1)models
10.3969/j.issn.1671-332X.2024.02.030
- VernacularTitle:基于ARIMA和GM(1,1)模型的互联网肿瘤专科门诊接诊现状预测研究
- Author:
Yanjie XU
1
;
Liang XIN
;
Junqing LIU
;
Yan LI
;
Shiyun LI
;
Ruozhen WANG
;
Henglei DONG
Author Information
1. 天津医科大学肿瘤医院//国家肿瘤临床医学研究中心//天津市"肿瘤防治"重点实验室//天津市恶性肿瘤临床医学研究中心 天津 300060
- Keywords:
ARIMA;
GM(1,1);
Internet;
Current situation of medical treatment;
Predictive study
- From:
Modern Hospital
2024;24(2):275-279
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To investigate the changing trend of the current situation of Internet-based oncology outpatient treatment and provide support for the development and management of Internet hospitals.Methods The ARIMA and GM(1,1)models were constructed based on the Internet-based outpatient data of a cancer hospital from January 2021 to June 2023,and the fitting effect was evaluated by mean absolute error(MAE)and root mean square error(RMSE).Based on the model,the pro-portion of Internet-based outpatient visits and the offline outpatient visits were predicted from July to December 2023.Results ARIMA(1,1,2)and GM(1,1)models were used to predict the proportion of Internet-based outpatient visits.The average abso-lute errors were 2.06%and 2.41%,and the root-mean-square errors were 3.01%and 3.17%,respectively.The ARIMA(0,1,1)and GM(1,1)models were used to predict the proportion of Internet-based outpatient visits to the offline outpatient visits,with the rate of the average absolute errors of 0.58%and 1.08%,respectively,and the rate of the root mean square errors 0.75%and 1.31%,respectively.The figures indicated that the ARIMA model had a better prediction effect.The forecast results showed that the predicted value of Internet outpatient service in December 2023 was 90.35%,and the predicted value of Internet-based outpatient service accounted for 16.46%of the offline outpatient service.Conclusion In 2021-2023,the proportion of Inter-net-based outpatient visits in the cancer hospital showed a steady trend,and the proportion of Internet outpatient visits in the off-line outpatient visits showed a rising trend.Therefore,hospitals need to establish a continuous monitoring mechanism,constantly adjust management strategies and measures to meet the needs of patients and continue to promote the high-quality development of Internet-based medical services.
