Research on the prediction of internet outpatient visits in public hospitals based on ARIMA and GM(1,1)model
10.3969/j.issn.1671-332X.2024.01.005
- VernacularTitle:基于ARIMA与GM(1,1)模型的公立医院互联网门诊人次预测研究
- Author:
Yanjie XU
1
;
Liang XIN
;
Junqing LIU
;
Yan LI
;
Shiyun LI
;
Ruozhen WANG
;
Honglei DONG
Author Information
1. 天津医科大学肿瘤医院//国家肿瘤临床医学研究中心//天津市"肿瘤防治"重点实验室//天津市恶性肿瘤临床医学研究中心 天津 300060
- Keywords:
ARIMA;
GM(1,1);
The internet;
Outpatient visits;
Prediction study
- From:Modern Hospital
2024;24(1):14-19
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To understand the changing trend of Internet outpatient visits in public hospitals,and provide support for the development planning of Internet hospitals.Methods Using the data of Internet outpatient visits in a public hos-pital from January 2021 to June 2023,the ARIMA model and GM(1,1)model were constructed respectively.The mean absolute error(MAE)and root mean square error(RMSE)were used to evaluate the fitting effect,and the Internet outpatient visits from July to December 2023 were predicted based on the dominance model.Results ARIMA(1,2,1)model and GM(1,1)model were used to predict the number of return visits of Internet outpatient service.The average absolute errors were 369.86 and 978.84,and the root-mean-square errors were 479.49 and 1444.83,respectively.The ARIMA(0,1,0)model and GM(1,1)model were used to predict the number of Internet outpatient consultations.The average absolute errors were 297.23 and 369.62,and the root-mean-square errors were 413.61 and 496.30,respectively,indicating that the ARIMA model has a good prediction effect.The forecast results show that the predicted value of Internet outpatient visits in December 2023 is 14,831 cases,and the predicted value of consultation visits is 7461 cases.Conclusion The number of Internet outpatient visits in a public hospital will continue to rise from 2021 to 2023.Therefore,hospitals should fully realize the importance of Internet medical services,take ac-tive measures to continuously optimize the medical service model,and provide patients with high-quality,efficient and convenient Internet medical services.
