Time series prediction analysis of average hospitalization expenditure and drug proportion of diabetes patients in a grade-a tertiary hospital in Zhejiang province
10.3969/j.issn.1671-332X.2023.12.015
- VernacularTitle:浙江某三甲医院糖尿病患者次均住院费用及药占比时间序列预测分析
- Author:
Ziyan ZHANG
1
;
Dan FENG
;
Jianian WANG
;
Yafang WU
;
Qiong WU
Author Information
1. 湖南中医药大学人文与管理学院 湖南长沙 410208
- Keywords:
Daibetes;
ARIMA model;
Hospitalization expenditure;
Expenditure prediction
- From:
Modern Hospital
2023;23(12):1861-1865,1870
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective This study conducted the ARIMA model to analyze the cost structure and trend of inpatients with diabetes in a grade-A tertiary hospital and provide scientific basis for effectively controlling diabetes hospitalization expenses and reduce patient's economic burden.Methods The data of 18 371 inpatients with diabetes from 2012 to 2022 in a grade-A tertiary hospital were collected.We collected inpatient data of diabetes from 2012 to 2021 to fit the average inpatient expenses and drug proportion,and used data 2022 to verify the effect of model prediction.We predicted the average inpatient expenses and drug proportion from 2023 to 2025.Results The difference between the predicted value and the actual value was small,and the mean absolute percentage error was within the acceptable range.ARIAM model could be used to predict the expenses of diabetes.Conclusion The average cost of hospitalization showed a decreasing trend,and"the five colors,one map,one index"manage-ment model has achieved results.The proportion of drugs decreased obviously,but the composition of hospitalization expenses should be further optimized.The research of expenses prediction based on diabetes needs to be depended.
