Construction and validation of stroke with aspiration risk analysis and prediction model
10.3969/j.issn.1671-8348.2023.23.021
- VernacularTitle:卒中误吸风险分析及预测模型的构建与验证
- Author:
Jinjuan XU
1
;
Liping WU
Author Information
1. 杭州市临平区中西医结合医院全科老年科,杭州 311100
- Keywords:
stroke;
complications;
aspiration;
nomogram model
- From:
Chongqing Medicine
2023;52(23):3638-3642,3647
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To construct and validate a nomogram risk model for predicting concurrent aspi-ration.Methods Fifty-five stroke patients with aspiration(the aspiration group)and 55 patients without aspi-ration(the control group)admitted to this hospital from April 2021 to April 2023 were selected as the study objects.Clinical data of the two groups of patients were collected,univariate and multivariate logistic regres-sion were used to analyze the risk factors of stroke with aspiration,and R software was used to construct a no-mogram risk model of stroke with aspiration based on the screened risk factors,and the accuracy of this model in predicting stroke complicated aspiration was validated.Results Age(≥60 years),infarct site(brain stem),lesion site(multiple),hypertension component ratio,NIHSS score and Hcy and hs-CRP levels in the aspiration group were higher than those in the control group,with statistical significance(P＜0.05).Multiva-riate logistic regression analysis showed that age(≥60 years old),infarct site(brainstem),lesion site(multi-ple),hypertension and NIHSS score(high)were the risk factors affecting aspiration in stroke patients(P＜0.05).The results of the nomogram model showed that NIHSS score was the strongest predictor of aspiration in stroke patients,followed by age(≥60 years old),infarct site(brain stem),lesion site(multiple),and hy-pertension.Model validation results showed that the area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve of the nomogram was 0.885(95％CI:0.701-0.945),and the consistency index was 0.831.H-L goodness of fit test showed that there was no significant difference between the predicted value and the actu-al observed value(x2=4.112,P=0.459),indicating that the prediction accuracy and differentiation of the model were good.Conclusion Age(≥60 years old),infarct site(brainstem),lesion site(multiple),hypertension,NIHSS score(high),Hcy(high)and hs-CRP(high)were the risk factors affecting aspiration in stroke pa-tients.The nomogram model could effectively predict the risk of aspiration in stroke patients.
