Prediction of brucellosis incidence in Urumqi
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2024.02.014
- VernacularTitle:乌鲁木齐市布鲁氏菌病发病预测分析
- Author:
Abodurezhake YAKUPU
1
;
Yue WANG
1
;
Yuhang ZHANG
1
;
Yiran ZHOU
1
;
Aiken GULIJIAYINA
1
;
Yaoqin LU
1
,
2
Author Information
1. School of Public Health , Xinjiang Medical University , Urumqi , Xinjiang 830054 , China
2. Department of Science and Education , Urumqi Center for Disease Control and Prevention , Urumqi , Xinjiang 830054 , China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Brucellosis;
Autoregressive moving average model;
Time series analysis;
Predict
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2024;35(2):62-66
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To explore the application of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in the prediction of brucellosis in Urumqi, and to use this model to predict the incidence trend of brucellosis in Urumqi. Methods The monthly incidence data of brucellosis in Urumqi from January 2010 to December 2021 were selected to construct the ARIMA prediction model. The prediction effect of the model was evaluated by mean standard deviation (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi in 2022 was predicted by the constructed model. Results The incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi had obvious seasonal distribution, and the cases were concentrated from May to July. ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,0,1)12 was the optimal prediction model, with RMSE=0.883 and MAE=5.24. The monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi in 2022 was predicted to be 7, 4, 4, 6, 9, 9, 10, 7, 7, 5, 5, and 5 cases, respectively. Conclusion ARIMA model can well fit and predict the monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi and provide a basis for the monitoring and prevention of brucellosis.
