Association between temperature and mortality: a multi-city time series study in Sichuan Basin, southwest China.

Yizhang Xia; Chunli Shi; Yang LI; Shijuan Ruan; Xianyan Jiang; Wei Huang; Yu Chen; Xufang Gao; Rong Xue; Mingjiang LI; Hongying Sun; Xiaojuan Peng; Renqiang Xiang; Jianyu Chen; Li Zhang

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Association between temperature and mortality: a multi-city time series study in Sichuan Basin, southwest China.

Author: Yizhang XIA ¹ ; Chunli SHI ¹ ; Yang LI ¹ ; Shijuan RUAN ¹ ; Xianyan JIANG ¹ ; Wei HUANG ² ; Yu CHEN ³ ; Xufang GAO ⁴ ; Rong XUE ⁵ ; Mingjiang LI ⁶ ; Hongying SUN ⁷ ; Xiaojuan PENG ⁸ ; Renqiang XIANG ⁹ ; Jianyu CHEN ¹ ; Li ZHANG ¹
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1. Sichuan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
2. Zigong Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
3. School of Public Health, Chengdu Medical College.
4. Chengdu Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
5. Guangyuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
6. Panzhi hua Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
7. Mianyang Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
8. Yaan Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
9. Fucheng Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
Publication Type:Journal Article
Keywords: Ambient temperature; Attributable risk; Non-accidental mortality; Time series
MeSH: Female; Humans; China/epidemiology*; Cities; Cold Temperature; Hot Temperature; Mortality; Temperature; Time Factors; Middle Aged; Male
From:Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine 2024;29():1-1
CountryJapan
Language:English
Abstract: BACKGROUND:There are few multi-city studies on the association between temperature and mortality in basin climates. This study was based on the Sichuan Basin in southwest China to assess the association of basin temperature with non-accidental mortality in the population and with the temperature-related mortality burden.
METHODS:Daily mortality data, meteorological and air pollution data were collected for four cities in the Sichuan Basin of southwest China. We used a two-stage time-series analysis to quantify the association between temperature and non-accidental mortality in each city, and a multivariate meta-analysis was performed to obtain the overall cumulative risk. The attributable fractions (AFs) were calculated to access the mortality burden attributable to non-optimal temperature. Additionally, we performed a stratified analyses by gender, age group, education level, and marital status.
RESULTS:A total of 751,930 non-accidental deaths were collected in our study. Overall, 10.16% of non-accidental deaths could be attributed to non-optimal temperatures. A majority of temperature-related non-accidental deaths were caused by low temperature, accounting for 9.10% (95% eCI: 5.50%, 12.19%), and heat effects accounted for only 1.06% (95% eCI: 0.76%, 1.33%). The mortality burden attributable to non-optimal temperatures was higher among those under 65 years old, females, those with a low education level, and those with an alternative marriage status.
CONCLUSIONS:Our study suggested that a significant association between non-optimal temperature and non-accidental mortality. Those under 65 years old, females, and those with a low educational level or alternative marriage status had the highest attributable burden.