External validation and newly development of a nomogram to predict overall survival of abiraterone-treated, castration-resistant patients with metastatic prostate cancer.
- Author:
Yun-Jie YANG
1
;
Guo-Wen LIN
1
;
Gao-Xiang LI
1
;
Bo DAI
1
;
Ding-Wei YE
1
;
Jun-Long WU
1
;
Hu-Yang XIE
1
;
Yao ZHU
1
Author Information
- Publication Type:Validation Study
- Keywords: abiraterone acetate; castration-resistant prostate cancer; external validation; nomogram; survival
- MeSH: Abiraterone Acetate/therapeutic use*; Adenocarcinoma/secondary*; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Alkaline Phosphatase/blood*; Androgen Antagonists/therapeutic use*; Antineoplastic Agents/therapeutic use*; Bone Neoplasms/secondary*; Cohort Studies; Humans; Kaplan-Meier Estimate; L-Lactate Dehydrogenase/blood*; Liver Neoplasms/secondary*; Male; Middle Aged; Multivariate Analysis; Neoplasm Metastasis; Nomograms; Prognosis; Proportional Hazards Models; Prostatic Neoplasms, Castration-Resistant/pathology*; Retrospective Studies; Serum Albumin/metabolism*; Survival Rate; Time Factors
- From: Asian Journal of Andrology 2018;20(2):184-188
- CountryChina
- Language:English
- Abstract: Abiraterone acetate is approved for the treatment of castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC); however, its effects vary. An accurate prediction model to identify patient groups that will benefit from abiraterone treatment is therefore urgently required. The Chi model exhibits a good profile for risk classification, although its utility for the chemotherapy-naive group is unclear. This study aimed to externally validate the Chi model and develop a new nomogram to predict overall survival (OS). We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of 110 patients. Patients were distributed among good-, intermediate-, and poor-risk groups, according to the Chi model. The good-, intermediate-, and poor-risk groups had a sample size of 59 (53.6%), 34 (30.9%), and 17 (15.5%) in our dataset, and a median OS of 48.4, 29.1, and 10.5 months, respectively. The C-index of external validation of Chi model was 0.726. Univariate and multivariate analyses identified low hemoglobin concentrations (<110 g l-1), liver metastasis, and a short time interval from androgen deprivation therapy to abiraterone initiation (<36 months) as predictors of OS. Accordingly, a new nomogram was developed with a C-index equal to 0.757 (95% CI, 0.678-0.836). In conclusion, the Chi model predicted the prognosis of abiraterone-treated, chemotherapy-naive patients with mCRPC, and we developed a new nomogram to predict the overall survival of this group of patients with less parameters.
