Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting survival outcomes in prostate cancer patients based on SEER database
10.3969/j.issn.1009-8291.2023.08.012
- VernacularTitle:基于SEER数据库预测前列腺癌患者生存率列线图的建立和验证
- Author:
Jinxia LI
1
;
Jiapeng HUANG
1
;
Peihua LIANG
2
Author Information
1. The First Clinical Medical College, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 510405
2. Department of Urology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 510405, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
prostate cancer;
nomogram;
prognosis;
SEER database;
clinical prediction model;
overall survival
- From:
Journal of Modern Urology
2023;28(8):696-701
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
【Objective】 To establish and verify a nomogram model of overall survival (OS) of prostate cancer patients based on the SEER data. 【Methods】 A total of 12 642 patients diagnosed with prostate cancer during 2010 and 2015 were extracted from the SEER database. Patients were randomly divided into the model group (n=8 850) and validation group (n=3 792). The independent risk factors for OS were analyzed with univariate Cox proportional risk regression, lasso regression and multivariate Cox proportional risk regression. A nomogram was constructed to predict the 1-year, 3-year and 5-year OS. The prediction potential of the model was evaluated with the consistency index (C-index), calibration curve and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. 【Results】 Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age, T stage, N stage, M stage, bone metastasis, liver metastasis and regional lymphadenectomy were independent risk factors for OS (P<0.05). The seven factors were used to construct an OS nomogram model. The C-index of the modeling set was 0.750, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) at 1, 3 and 5 years were 0.77, 0.77 and 0.76, respectively;the C-index of the validation set was 0.765, and the AUC at 1, 3 and 5 years were 0.83, 0.79 and 0.76, respectively. The calibration curves of the modelling set and validation set showed a good agreement with the actual survival prediction rate. Risk stratification of patients based on the nomogram model showed that the OS of patients in the high-risk group was significantly lower than that in the low-risk group (P<0.001). 【Conclusion】 The nomogram can be used to predict the prognosis of prostate cancer patients, and is important for individualized treatment plans.
