Application of ARIMA model in predicting pediatric red blood cell usage
10.13303/j.cjbt.issn.1004-549x.2023.09.016
- VernacularTitle:ARIMA模型在儿科红细胞用量预测中的应用
- Author:
Yuanqi YANG
1
;
Bolin HE
1
;
Pusheng WEN
1
;
Xuesong PENG
1
;
Juan HU
1
;
Yuxia GUO
1
Author Information
1. Department of Blood Transfusion, Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, National Clinical Research Center of Child Health and Disease, Chongqing Key Laboratory of Pediatrics, Chongqing 400014, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
ARIMA model;
blood transfusion for children;
prediction;
red blood cell
- From:
Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion
2023;36(9):822-826
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
【Objective】 To explore the feasibility of using autoregressive moving average model (ARIMA) to predict the dosage of suspended red blood cells in children, and to provide a basis for the development of clinical blood reserve plans in children's hospitals. 【Methods】 ARIMA model was constructed using the total blood consumption of clinical suspended red blood cells from March 2016 to May 2022 at the Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University as the data source by SPSS26.0 software. The optimal model was used to predict the clinical suspended red blood cell consumption from June to October 2022, and the predictive effect of the model was tested. 【Results】 ARIMA(0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)12 was the optimal model for predicting the consumption of suspended red blood cells in pediatrics. The autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function of the residual sequence basically fell within the 95% confidence interval. At the same time, Ljung-Box Q statistical results showed that there was no correlation between the residual (P>0.05), indicating that the residual was white noise, which met the randomicity hypothesis. The average relative error between the predicted values of the model and the actual clinical red blood cell usage from June to October 2022 was 5%, indicating high prediction accuracy. 【Conclusion】 The blood usage of children has obvious seasonal and periodic patterns, and the optimal model ARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)12 can better fit the trend of changes in pediatric suspended red blood cell usage, thus providing a basis for the development of clinical blood reserve plans in children's hospitals.
