Estimating the number of severe COVID-19 cases and COVID-19-related deaths averted by a nationwide vaccination campaign in Republic of Korea
10.24171/j.phrp.2023.0096
- Author:
Ji Hae HWANG
1
;
Ju Hee LEE
;
Eun Jung JANG
;
Ryu Kyung KIM
;
Kil Hun LEE
;
Seon Kyeong PARK
;
Sang Eun LEE
;
Chungman CHAE
;
Sangwon LEE
;
Young Joon PARK
Author Information
1. Division of Epidemiological Investigation Analysis, Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, Cheongju, Republic of Korea
- Publication Type:Original Article
- From:
Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives
2023;14(3):164-172
- CountryRepublic of Korea
- Language:English
-
Abstract:
Objectives:The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency promotes vaccination by regularly providing information on its benefits for reducing the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study aimed to analyze the number of averted severe COVID-19 cases and COVID-19-related deaths by age group and quantify the impact of Republic of Korea’s nationwide vaccination campaign.
Methods:We analyzed an integrated database from the beginning of the vaccination campaign on February 26, 2021 to October 15, 2022. We estimated the cumulative number of severe cases and COVID-19-related deaths over time by comparing observed and estimated cases among unvaccinated and vaccinated groups using statistical modeling. We compared daily age-adjusted rates of severe cases and deaths in the unvaccinated group to those in the vaccinated group and calculated the susceptible population and proportion of vaccinated people by age.
Results:There were 23,793 severe cases and 25,441 deaths related to COVID-19. We estimated that 119,579 (95% confidence interval [CI], 118,901–120,257) severe COVID-19 cases and 137,636 (95% CI, 136,909–138,363) COVID-19-related deaths would have occurred if vaccination had not been performed. Therefore, 95,786 (95% CI, 94,659–96,913) severe cases and 112,195 (95% CI, 110,870–113,520) deaths were prevented as a result of the vaccination campaign.
Conclusion:We found that, if the nationwide COVID-19 vaccination campaign had not been implemented, the number of severe cases and deaths would have been at least 4 times higher. These findings suggest that Republic of Korea’s nationwide vaccination campaign reduced the number of severe cases and COVID-19 deaths.
