1.Sanren Runchang Formula Regulates Brain-gut Axis to Treat IBS-C: A Randomized Controlled Trial
Teng LI ; Xinrong FAN ; He YAN ; Zhuozhi GONG ; Mengxi YAO ; Na YANG ; Yuhan WANG ; Huikai HU ; Wei WEI ; Tao LIU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(2):154-161
ObjectiveTo observe the clinical efficacy of Sanren Runchang formula in treating constipation-predominant irritable bowel syndrome (IBS-C) by regulating the brain-gut axis and the effects of the formula on serum levels of 5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT), vasoactive intestinal peptide (VIP), and substance P (SP). MethodsA randomized controlled design was adopted, and 72 IBS-C patients meeting Rome Ⅳ criteria were randomized into observation and control groups (36 cases).The observation group received Sanren Runchang formula granules twice daily, and the control group received lactulose oral solution daily for 4 weeks. IBS Symptom Severity Scale (IBS-SSS), IBS Quality of Life Scale (IBS-QOL), and Bristol Stool Form Scale (BSFS) were used to assess clinical symptoms, and bowel movement frequency was recorded. The Self-Rating Anxiety Scale (SAS) and Self-Rating Depression Scale (SDS) were employed to evaluate psychological status. ELISA was employed to measure the serum levels of 5-HT, VIP, and SP. ResultsThe total response rate in the observation group was 91.67% (33/36), which was higher than that (77.78%, 28/36) in the control group (χ2=4.50, P<0.05). After treatment, both groups showed increased defecation frequency and BSFS scores, decreased IBS-SSS total score, abdominal pain and bloating scores, IBS-QOL health anxiety, anxiety, food avoidance, and behavioral disorders scores, SAS and SDS scores, serum 5-HT and VIP levels, and increased SP levels (P<0.05, P<0.01). Moreover, the observation group showed more significant changes in the indicators above than the control group (P<0.05, P<0.01). The SP level showed no significant difference between the two groups. During the 4-week follow-up, the recurrence rate was 5.88% in the observation group and 31.25% in the control group. No adverse events occurred in observation group, and 2 cases of mild diarrhea occurred in the control group. ConclusionSanren Runchang formula demonstrated definitive efficacy in alleviating gastrointestinal symptoms and improving the psychological status and quality of life in IBS-C patients, with a low recurrence rate. The formula can regulate serum levels of neurotransmitters such as 5-HT and VIP, suggesting its potential regulatory effect on the brain-gut axis through modulating neurotransmitters and neuropeptides. However, its complete mechanism of action requires further investigation through detection of additional brain-gut axis-related biomarkers.
2.Research progress on the mechanisms of oxidative stress in retinopathy of prematurity
Na LI ; Yirong QIN ; Yi ZHU ; Ribo PENG
International Eye Science 2026;26(1):45-49
Retinopathy of prematurity(ROP)is a leading cause of childhood blindness, with extremely preterm and very-low-birth-weight infants now constituting the main high-risk group. ROP progresses in two stages: early retinal microvascular degeneration and progressive vascular arrest, followed by abnormal neovascularization in the avascular area. Early oxidative and nitrosative stress—amplified by oxygen fluctuations and immature antioxidant defenses—drives the two-phase pathogenesis via hypoxia-inducible factor/vascular endothelial growth factor(HIF/VEGF), NOX/STAT3, and nuclear factor erythroid 2 related factor 2(Nrf2)-antioxidant response element(ARE)pathways, mediating apoptosis of endothelial cells, damage to barrier and pathological angiogenesis. This review systematically analyzes different oxygen-induced retinopathy(OIR)models, elucidates key signaling pathways including Notch, Wnt in physiological and pathological vascularization, with particular emphasis on the biphasic effects of Nrf2 and the differential roles of NOX signaling between phases. We also discuss the limitations of anti-VEGF therapy and oxygen management principles. Reactive oxygen species(ROS)play context-dependent roles across vaso-obliteration and neovascularization phases. Based on mechanistic insights, we propose future directions including combined/sequential interventions, ferroptosis and lipid peroxidation targeting, nano-delivery systems for enhanced bioavailability, and perinatal safety assessment strategies, aiming to provide translatable mechanistic basis for reducing pathological neovascularization while promoting physiological vascular development.
3.Effect of Qingfei Shenshi Decoction (清肺渗湿汤) Combined with Western Medicine on Clinical Effectiveness and Immune Function for Patients with Bronchial Asthma of Heat Wheezing Syndrome
Ying SUN ; Haibo HU ; Na LIU ; Fengchan WANG ; Jinbao ZONG ; Ping HAN ; Peng LI ; Guojing ZHAO ; Haoran WANG ; Xuechao LU
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2026;67(1):38-44
ObjectiveTo observe the clinical effectiveness and safety of Qingfei Shenshi Decoction (清肺渗湿汤) combined with western medicine for patients with bronchial asthma of heat wheezing syndrome, and to explore its potential mechanism of action. MethodsEighty-six participants with bronchial asthma of heat wheezing syndrome were randomly divided into treatment group and control group, each group with 43 participants. The control group received conventional western medicine, and the treatment group was additionally administered Qingfei Shenshi Decoction orally on the basis of the control group, 1 dose per day. Both groups were treated for 14 days. The primary outcome measure was clinical effectiveness; secondary outcome measures included traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) syndrome score, asthma control test (ACT) score, pulmonary function indices such as forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), peak expiratory flow (PEF), serum inflammatory factor levels including interleukin-4 (IL-4), tumour necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), and immune function indices including CD3+, CD4+, CD8+, CD4+/CD8+. All outcome measures were evaluated before and after treatment. Vital signs were monitored, and electrocardiography, blood routine, urine routine, liver function, and renal function tests were performed before and after treatment. Adverse events and reactions during the study were recorded. ResultsA total of 80 patients completed the trial with 40 in each group. The total clinical effective rate of the treatment group was 97.5% (39/40), which was significantly higher than that of the control group (85.0%, 34/40, P<0.05). After treatment, both groups showed decreased TCM syndrome scores, IL-4, TNF-α, hs-CRP, and CD8+ levels, as well as increased ACT scores, CD3+, CD4+, CD4+/CD8+, FEV1, FVC, and PEF levels (P<0.05 or P<0.01). Moreover, the improvements in these indices were more significant in the treatment group than in the control group (P<0.05 or P<0.01). No significant abnormalities in safety indicators were observed in either group, and no adverse events or reactions occurred. ConclusionQingfei Shenshi Decoction combined with conventional western medicine for patients with bronchial asthma of heat wheezing syndrome can effectively improve the clinical symptoms, pulmonary function, and clinical effectiveness, with good safety. Its mechanism may be related to reducing inflammatory factor levels and regulating T lymphocyte subsets to improve immune function.
4.Analysis of the hydration status and related factors of boarding students in a rural primary school in Guangxi
ZHANG Yaning*, CHENG Shuai, XIA Yunting, ZHANG Na, LI Hongxing
Chinese Journal of School Health 2026;47(1):37-41
Objective:
To understand the hydration status and related factors of rural boarding primary school students, so as to provide a scientific basis for drinking water health intervention for primary school students.
Methods:
In November 2023, a convenience sampling approach was employed to conduct a hydration status survey among 144 boarding students in grades 5 and 6 of a rural primary school in Guangxi. The Duplicate meal method and weighing method were utilized to measure the food derived water intake over three consecutive days. Urine osmolarity of students was measured on site for three days, and a simple physical examination was also carried out. A self administered questionnaire was used to investigate students drinking water literacy, daily water intake, and physical activity levels. Meanwhile, a drinking water literacy survey was conducted among 21 substitute teachers and 144 parents of the boarding students in grades 5 and 6. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with students hydration status.
Results:
The median daily total water intake of students was 2 043.55 mL, and 54.86% of the students did not reach the recommended Adequate Intake (AI). The median food derived water intake was 1 149.24 mL, accounting for 53.94% of the total water intake. Univariate analysis revealed that the daily drinking frequency, daily water intake, and food derived water intake of students were related factors of hydration status ( β =-1.60, -1.01, -0.00, all P <0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that primary school students with a daily drinking frequency of ≥7 times were more likely to maintain an adequate hydration status ( OR =0.28, 95% CI =0.09-0.93, P <0.05).
Conclusions
The water intake from food is the main source of water in the body for boarding primary school students in a certain rural school in Guangxi. Primary school students should increase their water intake frequency appropriately to maintain an adequate hydration status.
5.Analysis of clinical efficacy of early CRRT combined with nafamostat mesylate for SA-AKI
China Pharmacy 2026;37(3):356-360
OBJECTIVE To investigate the effects of early continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) combined with nafamostat mesylate (NM) on clinical outcomes, safety, inflammatory reaction, and oxidative stress in patients with sepsis- associated acute kidney injury (SA-AKI). METHODS Patients’ data were gathered from 153 cases admitted to the intensive care unit of the our hospital between January 2023 and January 2025, who initiated CRRT within 48 hours after being diagnosed with SA-AKI. These patients were divided into control group (75 cases) and observation group (78 cases) according to different anticoagulant drugs used during CRRT. After CRRT, control group was given sodium citrate, while observation group was given NM. The clinical outcomes [the duration of mechanical ventilation, length of stay in the intensive care unit (ICU)] as well as Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) score, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, renal function indexes [serum creatinine (Scr), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), cystatin C (CysC)], inflammatory indexes [C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), interleukin-6 (IL-6)], oxidative stress markers [malondialdehyde (MDA), superoxide dismutase (SOD), glutathione peroxidase (GSH-Px)] and the occurrence of adverse drug reactions before and after treatment were compared between the two groups. RESULTS After treatment, the observation group had significantly shorter mechanical ventilation duration and ICU length of stay compared to the control group (P<0.05). APACHE Ⅱ scores, SOFA scores, renal function indexes, inflammatory indexes and MDA levels of two groups were significantly lower than those before treatment within the same group (P<0.05), and the observation group were significantly lower than the control group (P<0.05). The levels of SOD and GSH-Px were significantly higher than those before treatment within the same group (P<0.05), and the observation group were significantly higher than the control group (P<0.05). There was no statistically significant difference in the overall incidence of adverse events between the two groups (P>0.05). CONCLUSIONS Compared with early CRRT combined with sodium citrate, early CRRT combined with NM can significantly improve renal function in patients with SA-AKI, alleviate the degree of inflammatory reaction and oxidative stress, shorten ICU stay length, and demonstrate favorable safety.
6.Characteristics of HIV primary drug resistance and molecular transmission clusters in newly reported men who had sex with men in Taizhou City, Zhejiang Province
Shanling WANG ; Xuanhe WU ; Guixia LI ; Tingting WANG ; Yating WANG ; Tailin CHEN ; Weiwei SHEN ; Yali XIE ; Haijiang LIN ; Na HE ; Xiaoxiao CHEN
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(6):496-502
ObjectivesTo investigate the molecular epidemiological characteristics of HIV-1 infection among men who had sex with men (MSM) in Taizhou City, Zhejiang Province, and to provide a scientific reference for acquired immune deficiency syndrome prevention and control efforts. MethodsThe research subjects were all newly reported MSM population in Taizhou City from 2020 to 2023. Blood samples without antiviral therapy were collected. The HIV-1 pol gene was amplified and sequenced, and the sequences were submitted to the Stanford University drug resistance database to identify the mutation sites and drug resistance. MEGA 11.0 software was used to analyze the nucleic acid sequences, construct phylogenetic tree, and calculate genetic distance of gene sequences. The molecular transmission network diagram of HIV-1 was constructed using Cytoscape_v3.10.1, and the influencing factors of network entry were analyzed by logistic regression. ResultsA total of 363 newly reported HIV-infected MSM patients were included, with a median age [M (P25, P75)] of 34 (26,47) years old. The majority had an educational level of junior high school or below (55.65%). A total of eight subtypes were found, mainly CRF07_BC and CRF01_AE. The primary drug resistance rate was 10.47% (38/363). The optimal molecular network gene distance was 0.019, with a network access rate of 42.70% (155/363), and a total of 47 molecular clusters were formed. Multivariate logistic analyses showed that compared with the CRF01_AE subtype, the clustering risk of CRF07_BC subtype was higher (OR=1.916, 95%CI: 1.191‒3.109), cases with drug resistance had a higher risk of cluster formation than those without drug resistance (OR=2.011, 95%CI: 1.006‒4.080), and recent infected patients had a lower risk of entering the largest molecular cluster than long-term infected patients (OR=0.376, 95%CI: 0.137‒0.928). ConclusionThe newly diagnosed infections among the MSM population are active in Taizhou City, Zhejiang Province, with a high level of primary drug resistance. Individuals carrying drug-resistant strains are more likely to cluster. Drug resistance monitoring should be strengthened to prevent further spread of drug-resistant strains in the network.
7.Zingiberis Rhizoma Alleviates Inflammatory Bowel Disease Through Regulating TLR4/MAPK Signaling Pathway in Ly6Chi Monocytes/Macrophages
Yalan LI ; Chonghao ZHANG ; Huachen LIU ; Jialong SU ; Na LI ; Mengyu ZHOU ; Guiying PENG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(20):66-75
ObjectiveTo investigate the potential mechanisms of Zingiberis Rhizoma in treating inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) by integrating network pharmacology with in vitro and in vivo experiments. MethodsTraditional Chinese Medicine Systems Pharmacology Database And Analysis Platform (TCMSP), Traditional Chinese Medicine Integrated Database (TCMID) Database were used to obtain the active component targets of Zingiberis Rhizoma. GeneCards was used to obtain the IBD targets. DAVID was used to perform Gene Ontology (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway enrichment analyses on core targets. Cytoscape 3.10.2 was used to establish the "active component-disease target-signaling pathway" interaction network. Mice were randomly assigned to control, model, and Zingiberis Rhizoma (400 mg·kg-1) groups. An IBD model was induced via dextran sulfate sodium (DSS). The colonic tissue was collected post-treatment to assess histology, expression of Ly6C+ monocytes/macrophages, and mRNA levels of Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4), and inflammatory cytokines. The effect of Zingiberis Rhizoma aqueous extract on RAW264.7 cell viability was evaluated. Furthermore, the effects of the extract at 100, 10, and 1 mg·L-1 on LPS-induced differentiation of RAW264.7 cells into Ly6Chi monocytes/macrophages, mRNA levels of TLR4 and inflammatory cytokines, and protein levels of factors in the TLR4/mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) signaling pathway. ResultsA total of 241 targets were identified for Zingiberis Rhizoma and 6 787 for IBD, with 122 shared targets among Zingiberis Rhizoma, ulcerative colitis (UC), and Crohn's disease (CD). The enrichment analyses yielded 297 GO terms and 88 KEGG pathways. Associations were noted between Zingiberis Rhizoma's active component targets and IBD targets. In vivo experiments: Compared with the control group, the model group showed decreased body weight and disease activity index (DAI)(P<0.01), shortened colon length, damaged mucosal epithelium with inflammatory cell infiltration, raised pathological scores (P<0.05), increased Ly6Chi and Ly6Clo monocytes/macrophages (P<0.05), and up-regulated mRNA levels of TLR4, TNF-α, IL-1β, and IL-6 (P<0.05) and protein levels of TLR4, phosphorylated extracellular signal-regulated protein kinase 1/2 (p-ERK1/2), and phosphorylated p38 MAPK (p-p38 MAPK) (P<0.05). Zingiberis Rhizoma intervention reversed these changes and reduced Ly6Chi monocytes/macrophages (P<0.01). In vitro experiments: compared with the control, LPS increased the proportion and number of Ly6Chi monocytes/macrophages and mRNA levels of TLR4, TNF-α, IL-1β, and IL-6 (P<0.01) and enhanced the expression of TLR4, p-ERK1/2, and p-p38 MAPK (P<0.05). Zingiberis Rhizoma reduced Ly6Chi monocytes/macrophages (P<0.05), down-regulated the mRNA levels of inflammatory cytokines (P<0.05), and suppressed the TLR4/MAPK pathway (P<0.05). ConclusionZingiberis Rhizoma alleviates IBD by suppressing the TLR4/ERK/p38 MAPK signaling pathway and reducing inflammatory cytokine levels in Ly6Chi monocytes/macrophages.
8.Mume Fructus Restores Intestinal Mucosal Epithelial Barrier Through MEK/ERK Signaling Pathway in Mouse Model of Inflammatory Bowel Disease
Huachen LIU ; Chonghao ZHANG ; Yalan LI ; Jie LIU ; Jialong SU ; Na LI ; Shaoshuai LIU ; Qing WANG ; Guiying PENG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(20):76-85
ObjectiveTo clarify the repair effect of Mume Fructus on the intestinal mucosal epithelial barrier in the mouse model of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and explore the repair mechanism. MethodsThirty-six male C57BL/6 mice were randomly assigned into six groups: normal, model, low-, medium-, and high-dose (200, 400, and 800 mg·kg-1) Mume Fructus, and sulfasalazine (300 mg·kg-1). Except the normal group, the rest groups had free access to 2% dextran sulfate sodium (DSS) solution for seven days to establish the IBD model, followed by a seven-day drug intervention. The body weight change and disease activity index (DAI) were recorded. After the last administration, spleen and colon tissue samples were collected to analyze the differences in colon length and spleen index. Hematoxylin-eosin staining was used to observe the morphology of the colon tissue. The level of diamine oxidase (DAO) in the serum was measured by the DAO assay kit. Immunohistochemistry was employed to determine the expression of tight junction proteins such as Claudin-1, Occludin, and zonula occludens-1 (ZO-1) in the colon tissue. Real-time PCR was performed to measure the mRNA levels of tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) and interleukin-1β (IL-1β) in the colon tissue. Finally, Western blot was employed to determine the protein levels of mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase (MEK), extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK), phosphorylated (p)-MEK, and phosphorylated ERK in the colon tissue. ResultsCompared with the normal group, the model group exhibited decreases in body weight and colon length (P<0.01), increases in DAI, spleen index, and serum DAO level (P<0.01), damaged colonic epithelium and goblet cells, and obvious infiltration of inflammatory cells. In addition, the model group exhibited higher positive expression of Claudin-1, Occludin, and ZO-1 (P<0.01), higher mRNA levels of TNF-α and IL-1β (P<0.01), and higher protein levels of p-MEK and p-ERK (P<0.05, P<0.01) than the normal group. However, sulfasalazine and three doses of Mume Fructus markedly decreased the body weight and DAI (P<0.05), recovered the colon length and spleen index, alleviated colon tissue damage, lowered the level of DAO in the serum (P<0.01), and down-regulated the mRNA levels of TNF-α and IL-1β (P<0.01) and the protein levels of p-MEK and p-ERK (P<0.05). Sulfasalazine and low- and medium-dose Mume Fructus increased the positive expression of Occludin, Claudin-1, and ZO-1 (P<0.05, P<0.01). Furthermore, high-dose Mume Fructus elevated the protein expression of Occludin (P<0.05). ConclusionMume Fructus can restore the expression of intestinal epithelial tight junction proteins by inhibiting the phosphorylation of proteins in the MEK/ERK signaling pathway and down-regulating the levels of TNF-α and IL-1β, thus repairing the intestinal mucosal barrier in the mouse model of IBD.
9.Regulatory Effect of Modified Wumeiwan on Th17/Treg Balance and Intestinal Microbiota in Ulcerative Colitis with Dampness-heat Obstruction Syndrome in Human Flora-associated Model
Chonghao ZHANG ; Peiguang MA ; Huachen LIU ; Jialong SU ; Jie LIU ; Yalan LI ; Guichuan XU ; Na LI ; Guiying PENG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(20):86-93
ObjectiveTo investigate the modulating effect of modified Wumeiwan (MWMW) on the ulcerative colitis (UC)-associated intestinal helper T cell 17 (Th17)/regulatory T cell (Treg) balance and intestinal flora by using a human flora-associated model of UC patients with dampness-heat obstruction syndrome, thus providing a new idea for the UC-related research and therapeutic strategies. MethodsThe 24 male C57BL/6J mice were randomized into normal control, model, and MWMW groups (n=8). Model and MWMW groups were first treated with an antibiotic cocktail (vancomycin, 0.1 g·kg-1; neomycin sulfate, 0.2 g·kg-1; ampicillin, 0.2 g·kg-1; metronidazole, 0.2 g·kg-1) for 21 days. At the end of antibiotic treatment, the gavage of fecal microbiota suspension from UC patients with dampness-heat obstruction syndrome was started at a dose of 0.2 mL·d-1 for 19 consecutive days, by which a human flora-associated model of UC was obtained. The MWMW group was administrated daily with MWMW liquid (12.5 g·kg-1), while the normal control and model groups were administrated by gavage with an equal amount of sterile water for 7 consecutive days. The symptoms of dampness-heat obstruction were observed. The colon length and spleen index were measured and calculated, and the proportions of Th17 and Treg cells were detected by flow assay. The intestinal flora was analyzed by 16S rRNA high-throughput sequencing. ResultsCompared with the normal control group, the model group showed shortened colon (P<0.05) and increased spleen index (P<0.01). Compared with the model group, the MWMW group showed prolonged colon (P<0.01) and decreased spleen index (P<0.05). After the intervention of MWMW, the Th17 proportion and Th17/Treg ratio in the colon decreased (P<0.01), and the proportion of Treg cells increased (P<0.05). The number of species and alpha and beta diversity of intestinal flora in mice were regulated by MWMW (P<0.05). In terms of intestinal flora composition, MWMW increased the relative abundance of several phyla (Firmicutes, Proteobacteria, Fusobacteriota, Actinobacteriota, and Gemmatimonadota), the genus Bacteroides, and two species (Bacteroides thetaiotaomicron and B. fragilis) in model mice. Moreover, Spearman's correlation analysis showed that the relative abundance of B. thetaiotaomicron and B. fragilis were negatively correlated with the Th17 level (P<0.05). In addition, the above changes in intestinal flora caused the changes in microbial genes involved in 14 pathways, such as glycolysis, amino acid degradation, inorganic nutrient metabolism, biosynthesis of pyrimidine deoxyribonucleotides, antibiotic resistance, and degradation of polysaccharides. ConclusionsThe human flora-associated model successfully simulated the changes (marked by a decrease in the abundance of Bacteroides) of intestinal flora in UC patients with dampness-heat obstruction syndrome. MWMW can enrich the abundance of beneficial bacteria such as B. thetaiotaomicron and B. fragilis and promote the synergistic intestinal immune modulation with the metabolic functions centered on glycolysis, amino acid metabolism, and nucleotide synthesis through bacterial polysaccharide utilization sites to reduce the Th17/Treg ratio, thereby exerting a protective effect on UC.
10.Development of a nomogram-based risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease incidence in community-dwelling population aged 40 years and above in Shanghai
Yixuan ZHANG ; Yiling WU ; Jinxin ZANG ; Xuyan SU ; Xin YIN ; Jing LI ; Wei LUO ; Minjun YU ; Wei WANG ; Qi ZHAO ; Qin WANG ; Genming ZHAO ; Yonggen JIANG ; Na WANG
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(8):669-675
ObjectiveTo develop a nomogram-based risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) incidence among the community-dwelling population aged 40 years old and above, so as to provide targeted references for the screening and prevention of COPD. MethodsBased on a natural population cohort in suburban Shanghai, a total of 3 381 randomly selected participants aged ≥40 years underwent pulmonary function tests between July and October 2021. Cox stepwise regression analysis was used to develop overall and gender-specific risk prediction models, along with the construction of corresponding risk nomograms. Model predictive performance was evaluated using the C-indice, area under the curve (AUC) values, and Brier score. Stability was assessed through 10-fold cross-validation and sensitivity analysis. ResultsA total of 3 019 participants were included, with a median follow-up duration of 4.6 years. The COPD incidence density was 17.22 per 1 000 person-years, significantly higher in males (32.04/1 000 person-years) than that in females (7.38/1 000 person-years) (P<0.001). The overall risk prediction model included the variables such as gender, age, education level, BMI, smoking, passive smoking, and respiratory comorbidities. The male-specific model incorporated the variables such as age, BMI, respiratory comorbidities, and smoking, while the female-specific model included age, marital status, respiratory comorbidities, and pulmonary tuberculosis history. The C-indices for the overall, male-specific, and female-specific models were 0.829, 0.749, and 0.807, respectively. The 5-year AUC values were 0.785, 0.658, and 0.811, with Brier scores of 0.103, 0.176, and 0.059, respectively. Both 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and sensitivity analysis (excluding participants with a follow-up duration of <6 months) yielded C-indices were above 0.740. ConclusionThis study developed concise and practical overall and gender-specific COPD risk prediction models and corresponding nomograms. The models demonstrated robust performance in predicting COPD incidence, providing a valuable reference for identifying high-risk populations and formulating targeted screening and personalized management strategies.


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