Objective Analyzing the trends and driving factors of China's population structure changes from a global perspective, revealing its commonalities and specificities in reference to global levels, to provide a scientific basis for optimizing public health policies. Methods Integrating the latest authoritative data from sources such as the National Bureau of Statistics, GBD 2023, and the UN Population Division, this study utilizes Joinpoint regression to identify trend inflection points and conducts multidimensional analysis combined with methods such as ArcGIS spatial visualization. Results China's population is characterized by the triple overlapping trends of ^“negative growth, low birth rates, and aging^”. The total population has experienced continuous negative growth since 2022. Taking 2023 as an example, the population pyramid exhibited features of a ^“narrowing base and expanding top^”. The number of people in the 0-year age group was only 42.80% of the 1990 figure, while the population aged 60 and above was 2.89 times that of 1990. Significant interprovincial disparities exist, with some provinces showing a clustering phenomenon of ^“high mortality and low birth rates^”. According to the Seventh National Population Census, the male population was larger, with an overall sex ratio of 105. The sex ratio reached balance (i.e., 100) at age 58 and dropped to just 42 by age 100. The disease spectrum is undergoing rapid transformation: the proportion of deaths attributable to chronic non-communicable diseases increased from 74.26% in 1990 to 90.69% in 2023. Conclusion China's population structure is undergoing accelerated changes characterized by declining fertility and population aging, which have formed a self-reinforcing negative cycle, posing multiple challenges to public health and services. There is an urgent need to establish a targeted policy framework focused on enhancing childbearing support, improving health services and chronic disease management for the elderly, and optimizing long-term care systems to foster a virtuous cycle in the demographic structure and enhance the overall health of the population.

Objective To investigate the impact of holiday effects and prevention/control measures on the development characteristics and incidence trends of influenza in Hefei City using a Prophet-LSTM hybrid model, and to validate the applicability of the Prophet-LSTM model in influenza prediction by comparing the performance of different forecasting models. Methods Influenza incidence data from Hefei City (2016–2024) were collected to construct a Prophet-LSTM feature analysis and prediction model to analyze the impact of holiday effects and intervention measures on influenza incidence trends. Comparative models (ARIMA, GRU, and TimeGPT) were established and evaluated on the same test set. Results The data analysis revealed significantly increased influenza incidence during holidays (e.g., New Year's Day, Spring Festival, and National Day), while prevention and control measures led to declining trends. The Prophet-LSTM model demonstrated high consistency between the predicted and actual values, outperforming the comparative models with superior MAE (0.209), MSE (0.195), and IA (0.914), indicating higher prediction accuracy and trend-fitting capability. Conclusion The Prophet-LSTM model effectively captures spatiotemporal characteristics of influenza incidence, exhibits enhanced predictive performance when incorporating holiday effects and intervention measures, and demonstrates significant advantages and application value in influenza forecasting.

Objective To explore the effectiveness of the cumulative sum (CUSUM) and the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) for early warning of influenza epidemic using two datasets of reported influenza cases and influenza-like illness (ILI) cases. Methods Using the reported cases of influenza and ILI in Daxing District, Beijing, from week 23 of 2018 to week 22 of 2024 as data sets, the CUSUM and EWMA models were established, respectively. The positive rate of influenza etiology was used as the ^“gold standard^”, and the Youden index was used as the evaluation index to compare the early warning effect of the two models under different data sets and different parameters. Results In CUSUM, the optimal Youden indices of the reported influenza cases set and the ILI cases set were 0.751 and 0.635, respectively. In EWMA, the optimal Youden indices of the reported influenza cases set and the ILI cases set were 0.544 and 0.464, respectively. The optimal EWMA and CUSUM models could both issue early warning signals in advance of the ^“gold standard^”. Conclusion In the influenza epidemic early warning in Daxing District, Beijing, the CUSUM model established with the reported cases of influenza can achieve good early warning effects, but the model parameters need to be dynamically adjusted according to the local epidemic characteristics.

Objective To systematically review international research on health communication, and to provide valuable insights and reference for China's health communication research and practice. Methods This study included 693 articles published from January 2023 to April 2024 in two authoritative academic journals in the field of health communication, ^“Health Communication^” and the ^“Journal of Health Communication^”. A systematic review was conducted on the themes, theoretical foundations, research methods, and populations of international health communication research. Results The findings in this study revealed that international health communication research topics were diverse, with hotspots including social media, health information behavior, health misinformation, stigmatization, trust, and risk perception. The results showed that 34% of the articles were based on theoretical foundations, and 93.3% employed research methods, focusing on adolescents, parents, women, and other key populations. Conclusion Domestic health communication research can expand its perspective from ^“information transmission^” to ^“social interaction^”, innovate theories and methods from ^“single paradigm" to ^“multi-integration^” and shift focus from a ^“mass perspective^” to ^“targeted care^” for the health of all populations. Domestic health communication practice can delve into the localization of social media health communication practices, the comprehensive management of health misinformation, and the critical application of new technologies.

Objective To quantitatively assess the exposure-response association between exposure to heatwave and sudden death, estimate the attributable excess deaths, and identify potential vulnerable subgroups. Methods A time-stratified case-crossover study was conducted among residents who died from sudden death in Jiangsu Province, China between 2015 and 2021. Heatwave events in Jiangsu Province, defined using varying relative temperature thresholds and durations, were identified using temperature data from the China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS V2.0). Individual heatwave exposure was assessed based on each subject's residential address. The exposure-response association between heatwave and sudden death was evaluated using conditional logistic regression model combined with a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model(DLNM). Heatwave-attributable excess deaths were estimated. Stratified analyses by sex and age were performed to assess potential effect modifications. Results Under all definitions, exposure to heatwave was significantly associated with an increased risk of sudden death, and the risk increased with the intensity of heatwave. Using the P95_3d definition (temperature exceeding the 95th percentile for ≥3 consecutive days), heatwave was significantlyassociated with a 56% increased risk of sudden death (95% CI: 31%, 86%). The population-attributable fraction of sudden death due to heatwave exposure was 1.45% (95% CI: 0.97%, 1.90%). Stratified analyses indicated no statistically significant differences in the association between heatwave exposure and sudden death across age or sex subgroups. Conclusion Heatwave exposure was associated with an increased risk of sudden death. Reducing heatwave exposure during summer may help lower the occurrence of sudden death.

Objective To detect the PM_2.5 pollution situation during heating season in Xinxiang university town, analyze the contents of 10 elements in PM_2.5, and evaluate its health risks, so as to provide data support for the subsequent environmental governance of college town. Methods PM_2.5 were collected during heating season. The contents of 10 elements were detected by ICP-MS after PM_2.5 was digested. The source was analyzed using enrichment factor method. The ecological risk and health risk of PM_2.5 was evaluated by applying the potential survival hazard index method and health risk assessment method. Results The average contents of Al, Mg, Mn, Cr, Zn, Se, Cu, Pb, Cd and As were respectively 165.59，203.37，7.75，328.93，133.61，8.24，30.82，7.09，2.77and 9.15 ng/m³. The average contents of Cr, Pb, and As all exceeded their air environment targets. The enrichment factors of Pb, Cu, As, Zn, Cd, Cr and Se were all more than 10, and their sources were affected by human activities. The potential ecological risk index of PM_2.5 was 352.42, which was strong ecological hazard factor. PM_2.5 had carcinogenic risk to human, and the risk in adults was higher than that in children. Conclusion During heating season in Xinxiang college town mainly, PM_2.5 may have short-term health risks on environment and human. When the air quality is poor, it is recommended to reduce outdoor activities while taking personal protective measures to minimize the potential health risks to the population in the university town.

Objective To analyze the current status, hotspots, and trends of global disease burden research from 2015 to 2024 based on bibliometric methods, and to provide references for public health policy-making and academic research. Methods Disease burden-related literature was retrieved from the Web of Science Core Collection database, and visual analysis was conducted using CiteSpace 6.2.R4 software, including publication volume, subject distribution, national/institutional collaboration, author co-citation networks, keyword co-occurrence, clustering, and burst analysis. Results A total of 1 852 valid articles were included. The annual publication volume showed a growing trend, and entered a rapid growth phase after 2020 (with an average annual growth rate of 17.24%). The United States, China, the United Kingdom, and Germany had the highest publication volumes, with public health, internal medicine, and epidemiology being the main subject areas. The author co-citation network indicated that Younossi ZM, Lozano R, and others were core authors, while the Chinese University of Hong Kong and Aga Khan University were at the core of the institutional collaboration network. High-frequency keywords were focused on ^“prevalence^”, ^“mortality^”, and ^“risk factors^”, and clustering analysis formed seven themes, including disease burden assessment methods (such as disability-adjusted life years), specific diseases (such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), and data resources (such as National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey). Burst analysis divided the research into three stages: 2015-2017 focused on infectious diseases (such as hepatitis C), 2018-2019 shifted to chronic non-communicable diseases (such as metabolic syndrome), and 2020-2024 focused on emerging fields such as viral-related diseases and cancer treatment. Conclusion Global disease burden research exhibits characteristics of multidisciplinary crossover. In the future, it is necessary to strengthen interdisciplinary collaboration, integrate big data and artificial intelligence technologies, focus on emerging health issues, and promote the transformation of research findings into policy.

Objective To analyze the clinical manifestations of patients over 60 years old with acute respiratory infection in Pudong New Area of Shanghai and the risk factors of positive detection of novel coronavirus, and to provide reference for improving prevention and control strategies and measures. Methods General conditions, clinical features, basic complications and respiratory samples of inpatients over 60 years old with acute respiratory infection from eight hospitals in Pudong New Area of Shanghai from January to October 2023 were collected, and SARS-CoV-2 detection was carried out. Chi-square test and binary logistics regression were used for data analysis. Results A total of 604 patients over 60 years old were collected, including 356 (58.945) males with a median age of 77 (IQR:70-85) years. Of the 604 cases, 264 were detected positive for SARS-CoV-2, with a positive detection rate of 43.71%. The results of univariate analysis showed that there were significant differences in the detection rates of SARS-CoV-2 among different age groups (χ²=10.60, P=0.01) and different months (χ²=87.15, P=0.00), and among those with cough (χ²=5.28, P=0.02), sputum (χ²=4.19, P=0.04), sore throat (χ²=3.93, P=0.04), and hypertension (χ²=7.63, P=0.01). In the binary logistics regression analysis, month (P=0.00, OR=2.93, 95% CI=1.49-5.78) and age (P=0.00, OR=2.60, 95% CI=1.55-4.37) were independent risk factors for positive detection of SARS-CoV-2. Conclusion The majority of hospitalized cases of acute respiratory infection over 60 years old are male, and the risk factors for positive detection of novel coronavirus are age 80~89 years old and time between May and June.

Objective The aim of this study is to examine the epidemiological features of foodborne disease outbreaks in Nanjing between 2013 and 2023, in order to offer a scientific foundation for the prevention and management of foodborne diseases. Methods Gathering information on foodborne disease outbreaks in Nanjing from 2013 to 2023, conduct descriptive analysis on the epidemiological characteristics of outbreak events, including time distribution, location distribution, and pathogenic factor distribution. A comparison of the rates was conducted using a χ² test, with P<0.05 signifying statistical significance. Results Nanjing experienced 145 outbreaks of foodborne diseases. resulting in 21246 people being exposed, 2 488 affected and 3 fatalities from 2013 to 2023. The epidemic is primarily concentrated in the third quarter. There is a significant statistical difference in the incidence rate between different quarters (χ²=121.063, P<0.001). The number of events caused by Vibrio parahaemolyticus is the highest, accounting for 23.45%. The identification rate of problematic foods is 67.59%, with meat and meat products being the most pathogenic (18.62%). The outbreak was mainly caused by improper storage and processing. The restaurants being the most common (41.38%). Conclusions Nanjing should focus on monitoring outbreaks caused by Vibrio parahaemolyticus, especially in the third quarter; it is necessary to strengthen the health education of poisonous mushrooms; Nanjing should focus on the storage and processing of meat and meat products, and enhance food safety supervision in catering service venues, and improve on-site sampling and laboratory testing capabilities, thus drastically diminishing the risk of foodborne disease outbreaks.

Objective To investigate the incidence trend of infectious diseases among kindergarten children in Yangpu District, Shanghai, and to provide scientific reference for prevention and control strategies of infectious diseases among key populations. Methods Descriptive epidemiology method and Joinpoint regression analysis model were used to analyze the surveillance data of infectious diseases among kindergarten children. Results The average annual reported incidence of infectious diseases among kindergarten children in Yangpu District was 3,344.08/100,000, showing a downward trend (AAPC=-5.51, 95%CI: -13.02~2.63). Intestinal (65.49%) and respiratory (34.48%) infectious diseases were the main cases. There were 7,378 cases of hand, foot and mouth disease (62.95%), 1,885 cases of influenza (16.08%), 1,378 cases of varicella (11.76%), and 392 cases of mumps (3.34%), accounting for 94.14% of all reported cases. Hand, foot and mouth disease (AAPC=-17.68%, 95%CI: -27.52~-6.51), mumps (AAPC=-9.33, 95%CI: -14.86~-3.45) and varicella (AAPC=-7.32, 95%CI: -17.35~3.93) showed an overall decreasing trend, while influenza (AAPC=32.19, 95%CI: 12.49-55.34) was on the rise. The incidence of the disease showed double peak distribution, and the high incidence months were from May to July and from September to December. The male to female ratio was 1.39:1. Conclusion The incidence of infectious diseases among kindergarten children in Yangpu District shows a downward trend. It is necessary to continue to increase the coverage rate of Enterovirus 71(EV71), influenza, chickenpox and MMR combined live attenuated vaccine, strengthen monitoring and early warning, actively carry out health guidance, and effectively control the occurrence of common infectious diseases in kindergarten children.