1.Associations of short-term ambient particulate matter exposure and MTNR1B gene with triglyceride-glucose index:A family-based study
Huangda GUO ; Hexiang PENG ; Siyue WANG ; Tianjiao HOU ; Yixin LI ; Hanyu ZHANG ; Mengying WANG ; Yiqun WU ; Xueying QIN ; Xun TANG ; Jing LI ; Dafang CHEN ; Yonghua HU ; Tao WU
Journal of Peking University(Health Sciences) 2024;56(3):375-383
Objective:To explore the effects of short-term particulate matter(PM)exposure and the melatonin receptor 1B(MTNR1B)gene on triglyceride-glucose(TyG)index utilizing data from Fang-shan Family-based Ischemic Stroke Study in China(FISSIC).Methods:Probands and their relatives from 9 rural areas in Fangshan District,Beijing,were included in the study.PM data were obtained from fixed monitoring stations of the National Air Pollution Monitoring System.TyG index was calculated by fasting triglyceride and glucose concentrations.The associations of short-term PM exposure and rs10830963 polymorphism of the MTNR1B gene with the TyG index were assessed using mixed linear models,in which covariates such as age,sex,and lifestyles were adjusted for.Gene-environment inter-action analysis was furtherly performed using the maximum likelihood methods to explore the potential effect modifier role of rs10830963 polymorphism in the association of PM with TyG index.Results:A total of 4 395 participants from 2 084 families were included in the study,and the mean age of the study participants was(58.98±8.68)years,with 53.90%females.The results of association analyses showed that for every 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentration,TyG index increased by 0.017(95%CI:0.007-0.027),while for per 10 μg/m3 increment in PM1o,TyG index increased by 0.010(95%CI:0.003-0.017).And the associations all had lagged effects.In addition,there was a positive association between the rs10830963 polymorphism and the TyG index.For per increase in risk allele G,TyG index was elevated by 0.040(95%CI:0.004-0.076).The TyG index was 0.079(95%CI:0.005-0.152)higher in carriers of the GG genotype compared with carriers of the CC genotype.The inter-action of rs10830963 polymorphism with PM exposure had not been found to be statistically significant in the present study.Conclusion:Short-term exposure to PM2.5 and PM10 were associated with higher TyG index.The G allele of rs10830963 polymorphism in the MTNR1B gene was associated with the elevated TyG index.
2.Gene-gene/gene-environment interaction of transforming growth factor-β signaling pathway and the risk of non-syndromic oral clefts
Tianjiao HOU ; Zhibo ZHOU ; Zhuqing WANG ; Mengying WANG ; Siyue WANG ; Hexiang PENG ; Huangda GUO ; Yixin LI ; Hanyu ZHANG ; Xueying QIN ; Yiqun WU ; Hongchen ZHENG ; Jing LI ; Tao WU ; Hongping ZHU
Journal of Peking University(Health Sciences) 2024;56(3):384-389
Objective:To explore the association between polymorphisms of transforming growth factor-β(TGF-β)signaling pathway and non-syndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate(NSCL/P)among Asian populations,while considering gene-gene interaction and gene-environment interaction.Methods:A total of 1 038 Asian NSCL/P case-parent trios were ascertained from an international consortium,which conducted a genome-wide association study using a case-parent trio design to investigate the genes affec-ting risk to NSCL/P.After stringent quality control measures,343 single nucleotide polymorphism(SNP)spanning across 10 pivotal genes in the TGF-β signaling pathway were selected from the original genome-wide association study(GWAS)dataset for further analysis.The transmission disequilibrium test(TDT)was used to test for SNP effects.The conditional Logistic regression models were used to test for gene-gene interaction and gene-environment interaction.Environmental factors collected for the study in-cluded smoking during pregnancy,passive smoking during pregnancy,alcohol intake during pregnancy,and vitamin use during pregnancy.Due to the low rates of exposure to smoking during pregnancy and al-cohol consumption during pregnancy(<3%),only the interaction between maternal smoking during pregnancy and multivitamin supplementation during pregnancy was analyzed.The threshold for statistical significance was rigorously set at P=1.46 × 10-4,applying Bonferroni correction to account for multiple testing.Results:A total of 23 SNPs in 4 genes yielded nominal association with NSCL/P(P<0.05),but none of these associations was statistically significant after Bonferroni's multiple test correction.How-ever,there were 6 pairs of SNPs rs4939874(SMAD2)and rs1864615(TGFBR2),rs2796813(TGFB2)and rs2132298(TGFBR2),rs4147358(SMAD3)and rs1346907(TGFBR2),rs4939874(SMAD2)and rs1019855(TGFBR2),rs4939874(SMAD2)and rs12490466(TGFBR2),rs2009112(TGFB2)and rs4075748(TGFBR2)showed statistically significant SNP-SNP interaction(P<1.46 × 10-4).In contrast,the analysis of gene-environment interactions did not yield any significant results after being cor-rected by multiple testing.Conclusion:The comprehensive evaluation of SNP associations and interac-tions within the TGF-β signaling pathway did not yield any direct associations with NSCL/P risk in Asian populations.However,the significant gene-gene interactions identified suggest that the genetic architec-ture influencing NSCL/P risk may involve interactions between genes within the TGF-β signaling path-way.These findings underscore the necessity for further investigations to unravel these results and further explore the underlying biological mechanisms.
3.A prospective cohort study of association between early childhood body mass index trajectories and the risk of overweight
Zhihan YUE ; Na HAN ; Zheng BAO ; Jinlang LYU ; Tianyi ZHOU ; Yuelong JI ; Hui WANG ; Jue LIU ; Haijun WANG
Journal of Peking University(Health Sciences) 2024;56(3):390-396
Objective:To compare the association between body mass index(BMI)trajectories deter-mined by different methods and the risk of overweight in early childhood in a prospective cohort study,and to identify children with higher risk of obesity during critical growth windows of early childhood.Methods:A total of 1 330 children from Peking University Birth Cohort in Tongzhou(PKUBC-T)were included in this study.The children were followed up at birth,1,3,6,9,12,18,and 24 months and 3 years of age to obtain their height/length and weight data,and calculate BMI Z-score.Latent class growth mixture modeling(GMM)and longitudinal data-based k-means clustering algorithm(KML)were used to determine the grouping of early childhood BMI trajectories from birth to 24 mouths.Linear regres-sion was used to compare the association between early childhood BMI trajectories determined by different methods and BMI Z-score at 3 years of age.The predictive performance of early childhood BMI trajecto-ries determined by different methods in predicting the risk of overweight(BMI Z-score>1)at 3 years was compared using the average area under the curve(AUC)of 5-fold cross-validation in Logistic regres-sion models.Results:In the study population included in this research,the three-category trajectories determined using GMM were classified as low,medium,and high,accounting for 39.7%,54.1%,and 6.2%of the participants,respectively.The two-category trajectories determined using the KML method were classified as low and high,representing 50.3%and 49.7%of the participants,respectively.The three-category trajectories determined using the KML method were classified as low,medium,and high,accounting for 31.1%,47.4%,and 21.5%of the participants,respectively.There were certain differ-ences in the growth patterns reflected by the early childhood BMI trajectories determined using different methods.Linear regression analysis found that after adjusting for maternal ethnicity,educational level,delivery mode,parity,maternal age at delivery,gestational week at delivery,children's gender,and breastfeeding at 1 month of age,the association between the high trajectory group in the three-category trajectories determined by the KML method(manifested by a slightly higher BMI at birth,followed by rapid growth during infancy and a stable-high BMI until 24 months)and BMI Z-scores at 3 years was the strongest.Logistic regression analysis revealed that the three-category trajectory grouping determined by the KML method had the best predictive performance for the risk of overweight at 3 years.The results were basically consistent after additional adjustment for the high bound score of the child's diet balanced index,average daily physical activity time,and screen time.Conclusion:This study used different methods to identify early childhood BMI trajectories with varying characteristics,and found that the high trajectory group determined by the KML method was better able to identify children with a higher risk of overweight in early childhood.This provides scientific evidence for selecting appropriate methods to de-fine early childhood BMI trajectories.
4.Association between self-control and co-occurrence of depressive symptoms and over-weight or obesity during adolescence and early adulthood:A ten-year prospective co-hort study based on national surveys
Jing CHEN ; Rui SHAN ; Wucai XIAO ; Xiaorui ZHANG ; Zheng LIU
Journal of Peking University(Health Sciences) 2024;56(3):397-402
Objective:To explore the association between self-control and the co-occurrence of depres-sive symptoms and overweight or obesity from adolescence to early adulthood in the Chinese population,and to provide a scientific basis for personalized interventions targeting individuals with different risks in the future.Methods:From a prospective cohort study that lasted for 10 years:The China family panel studies(CFPS),a total of 608 children and adolescents meeting the following inclusion and exclusion criteria were included as study subjects:(1)Aged 10 to 19 years,at normal weight according to Chinese standards,and without depressive symptom in 2010;(2)Had self-control scores,and with at least two measurements of depressive symptoms and body mass index(BMI)between 2010 and 2020;(3)The only one or the youngest child and adolescent from each family.The co-occurrence of depressive symp-toms and overweight or obesity was defined in three ways:Both of the average level of standardized scores of depressive symptoms and BMI Z-scores across multiple measurements over time were at a high level,or both of the trajectories of depressive symptoms and BMI over time based on the latent classification trajec-tory model(LCTM)belonging to the"risk-type",or individuals had depressive symptoms and over-weight/obesity at the last follow-up survey.The multinomial Logistic regression model was used to examine the association between standardized scores of self-control and the co-occurrence of depressive symptoms and overweight or obesity.Results:The score of self-control was associated with the co-occur-rence of depressive symptoms and overweight or obesity when using healthy individuals as the reference group after adjusting for age(years),gender(male/female),area(urban/rural),weekly physical ac-tivity duration(high/low),parental education level(college or above/high school or below),parental weight status(overweight or obese or not),and parental depressive symptoms(with depressive symptoms or not),regardless of the definition of the risk population.Specifically,the risk of co-occurrence of de-pressive symptoms and overweight or obesity was reduced by 33%(95%CI:14%to 48%,based on the average level across multiple measurements over time)to 78%(95%CI:6%to 95%,based on the joint trajectories of depressive symptoms and BMI over time)per 1-standard deviation(1-SD)increase in self-control score.In addition,the risk of depressive-symptom-dominant and overweight-or-obesity-dominant was reduced by 25%(95%CI:4%to 42%,only based on the average level across multiple measure-ments over time)and 21%(95%CI:1%to 37%,only based on the joint trajectories of depressive symptoms and BMI over time)per 1-SD increase in self-control score,respectively.The results from sen-sitivity analysis that defined individuals'weight status according to World Health Organization(WHO)standards were consistent with our main findings.Conclusion:Individuals with higher self-control scores from adolescence to early adulthood have a lower risk of co-occurrence of depressive symptoms and over-weight or obesity,suggesting that personalized interventions for co-occurrence of depressive symptoms and overweight or obesity can be carried out based on self-control scores in the future.
5.Status and pathways of factors influencing physical activity time among elementary and junior high school students in Beijing
Shan CAI ; Yihang ZHANG ; Ziyue CHEN ; Yunfei LIU ; Jiajia DANG ; Di SHI ; Jiaxin LI ; Tianyu HUANG ; Jun MA ; Yi SONG
Journal of Peking University(Health Sciences) 2024;56(3):403-410
Objective:To describe the current distribution of daily physical activity time among ele-mentary and junior high school students in Beijing,and to analyze the influencing factors and pathways at the individual,family,school and community levels.Methods:Data were drawn upon from a cross-sectional investigation in Beijing in 2023,and a total of 3 157 elementary and junior high school students were included in the final analysis.Questionnaire was used to collect data on basic characteristics,over-all and in-school physical activity time per day,the number of sports mastered,perceived physical activi-ty benefits and barriers scales,perceived family,school,and community physical activity supportive en-vironment scales.Log-binomial regression model was used to analyze the associations between physical activity time and influencing factors,and structural equation modeling was used for the path analysis of the influencing factors.Results:The reported rates of ≥ 2 hours of overall physical activity per day and≥1 hour of physical activity in school per day among elementary and junior high school students in Beijing in 2023 were 33.1%and 64.8%,respectively.The associations between the number of sports mastered by students and the reported rate of ≥2 hours of overall physical activity per day showed a typical dose-response relationship(P-trend<0.001).The perceived physical activity benefits-to-barriers ratio(PR=1.24,95%CI:1.20-1.28),scores of perceived family,school,and community physical acti-vity supportive environment scales were all positively associated with the reported rate of≥2 hours of overall physical activity per day(PR=1.51,95%CI:1.38-1.66;PR=1.50,95%CI:1.37-1.64;PR=1.21,95%CI:1.16-1.27).The structural equation modeling showed that the number of sports mastered by the students(β=0.11,P<0.001),perceived physical activity benefits-to-barriers ratios(β=0.15,P<0.001),and scores of supportive environment scales consisting of family,school,and community(β=0.13,P<0.001)were associated with the reported rates of ≥2 hours of overall physi-cal activity per day directly.In addition,the scores of supportive environment scales could indirectly in-fluence the reported rates of ≥2 hours of overall physical activity per day by influencing the number of sports mastered by the students(β=0.21,P<0.001)and the perceived physical activity benefits-to-barriers ratio(β=0.56,P<0.001),while the number of sports mastered by the students could indi-rectly influence the reported rates of ≥2 hours of overall physical activity per day by influencing the per-ceived physical activity benefits-to-barriers ratios(β=0.05,P=0.003).The influencing factors and pathways of the reported rates of ≥ 1 hour of physical activity in school per day were similar with those of the reported rates of ≥2 hours of overall physical activity per day described above.Conclusion:The dai-ly physical activity time among elementary and junior high school students in Beijing in 2023 fell short of meeting the national requirement.There was a need to build a supportive environment consisting of fami-ly,school,and community for physical activity,to promote the students'sports skills,to establish the idea of independent physical activity,and to ensure that primary and secondary school students were given one hour of physical activity time every day,both inside and outside the school.
6.Comparative research on the relationship between body mass index and physical fit-ness index among the Uygur,Kazakh and Han ethnic college students
Journal of Peking University(Health Sciences) 2024;56(3):411-417
Objective:To understand the nutritional status and physical fitness of the Uygur,Kazak and Han ethnic college students,and to investigate the nonlinear relationship between BMI and physical fitness indexes in different ethnic groups.Methods:A total of 3 600 Uygur,Kazakh and Han students majoring in non-sports in a university in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in 2021 were selected by stratified random cluster sampling method.Height,weight,vital capacity,50 m running,standing long jump,sit-and-reach,sit-up/pull-up and endurance running were measured.Body mass index(BMI),standardized Z score of each test score and physical fitness index(PFI)were calculated.The data were analyzed by Chi-square test,single factor analysis of variance,and nonlinear quadratic regression.Results:Prevalences of overweight(16.00%)and obesity(8.08%)of the Han college students were sig-nificantly higher than those of the Uygur(11.83%and 4.08%)and Kazakh(13.58%and 4.58%).Preva-lence of low weight in the Uygur(11.92%)was the highest,and the lowest was the Kazakh(9.75%).There were significant differences in the prevalence of BMI classification among the three ethnic groups boys and girls(all P<0.05).There were significant differences in PFI among college students of different BMI levels in the Uygur,Kazakh and Han ethnic college students(all P<0.05),and the PFI of normal weight group was higher than the other weight groups in general,and the overweight group was higher than the obese group,but some ethnics showed the highest PFI in the low weight group.The non-linear quadratic regression results showed that the curves of the Uygur boys and girls and the Kazakh boys were inverted"J"shaped,and the PFI increased and then decreased with the increase of BMI,while the rest of the curves were arc-shaped,and the PFI decreased with the increase of BMI.Conclusion:Overweight obesity in the Uygur,Kazakh and Han ethnic college students brings about a decrease in physical fitness,but Kazakh low weight male and female and Han low weight grils have better physical fitness than the normal weight groups.Focusing on improving the physical fitness of Uygur low-weight and high-weight boys and Han high-weight girls could effectively re-duce the differences in physical fitness of college students in different weight levels and ethnic groups.
7.Associations between puberty timing and cardiovascular metabolic risk factors among primary and secondary students
Zuhong ZHANG ; Tianjiao CHEN ; Jun MA
Journal of Peking University(Health Sciences) 2024;56(3):418-423
Objective:To explore the relationship between puberty timing and cardiovascular metabolic risk factors among primary and secondary students with different genders in Beijing.Methods:Using the method of stratified cluster sampling by urban and rural areas and school sections,3 067 students from 16 primary and secondary schools in Fangshan District of Beijing were selected in October 2012,with ques-tionnaire survey,physical examination and serum laboratory testing.In this study,we controlled for con-founding factors such as school segments,current residence of the family,birth weight,feeding method,only child,highest educational level of parents,and monthly family income,and then the associations between cardiovascular metabolic risk factors and puberty timing among the primary and secondary students was analyzed by multivariate Logistic analysis.To ensure the reliability of the data,this study adopted strict quality control.Results:A total of 3 067 primary and middle school students aged 7 to 16 years were included in this study,including 1 575 boys and 1 492 girls.The prevalence of premature pu-berty was 14.73%among the boys and 12.89%among the girls,respectively.The prevalence of delayed puberty was 9.49%among the boys and 10.99%among the girls,respectively.The detection rates of central obesity,hypertension,hyperglycemia,and dyslipidemia among the primary and secondary students were 35.87%,19.95%,2.54%and 26.31%,respectively.The detection rates of 1 risk fac-tor clustering,2 risk factors clustering and more than 3 risk factors clustering were 29.21%,16.17%and 9.36%,respectively.The difference in the detection rate of cardiovascular and metabolic risk factors in different youth stages was insignificant(P>0.05),the detection rate of risk factor aggregation of 0 was lower than that of the timely group and delayed group,and the detection rate of risk factors aggrega-tion of 2 was higher than that of the timely group(P<0.05).After adjusting the effects of learning stage,region,birth weight,feeding patterns,one-child,family income and the parents'educational levels,multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that,compared with the on-time puberty group,the risk of 1 risk factor clustering,2 risk factors clustering and more than 3 risk factors clustering increased by 1.94 times(95%CI=1.29-2.91),2.97 times(95%CI=1.89-4.67)and 2.02 times(95%CI=1.13-3.63)among the girls;It had not been found that the relationship between puberty timing and car-diovascular risk factor clustering among the boys(P>0.05).Conclusion:Premature puberty is an inde-pendent risk factor for the clustering of cardiometabolic risk factors in girls,and primary prevention strate-gies should be implemented to reduce the burden of cardiovascular metabolic diseases in the population.
8.Cardiovascular safety of sitagliptin added to metformin in real world patients with type 2 diabetes
Zuoxiang LIU ; Xiaowei CHEN ; Houyu ZHAO ; Siyan ZHAN ; Feng SUN
Journal of Peking University(Health Sciences) 2024;56(3):424-430
Objective:To assess the safety of sitagliptin added to metformin on cardiovascular adverse events in real world patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM).Methods:Real world data from Yinzhou Regional Health Care Database were used to select T2DM patients with diagnosis and treatment records in the platform from January 1,2017 to December 31,2022.According to drug prescription records,the patients were divided into metformin plus sitagliptin group(combination group)and metformin monotherapy group(monotherapy group).A series of retrospective cohorts were constructed according to the index date.Finally,full retrospective cohorts were constructed according to propensity score model,including baseline covariates that might be related to outcomes,to match the subjects in the combination group and monotherapy group for the purpose of increasing the comparability of baseline characteristics.The participants were followed up from the index date until the first occurrence of the following events:Diagnosis of outcomes,death,or the end of the study period(December 31,2022).Cox proportional risk model was used to estimate the hazard ratio(HR)and 95%confidence interval(CI)of sitagliptin added to metformin on 3-point major adverse cardiovascular events(3P-MACE)combination outcome and secondary cardiovascular outcomes.Results:Before propensity score matching,the proportion of the pa-tients in combination group using insulin,α glucosidase inhibitors,sodium-glucose transporter 2 inhibi-tors(SGLT-2I)and glienides at baseline was higher than that in monotherapy group,and the baseline fasting blood glucose(FBG)and hemoglobin A1c(HbA1c)levels in combination group were higher than those in monotherapy group.After propensity score matching,5 416 subjects were included in the combination group and the monotherapy group,and baseline characteristics were effectively balanced be-tween the groups.The incidence densities of 3P-MACE were 6.41/100 person years and 6.35/100 per-son years,respectively.Sitagliptin added to metformin did not increase or decrease the risk of 3P-MACE compared with the metformin monotherapy(HR=1.00,95%CI:0.91-1.10).In secondary outcomes analysis,the incidence of cardiovascular death was lower in the combination group than in the monothera-py group(HR=0.59,95%CI:0.41-0.85),and no association was found between sitagliptin and the risk of myocardial infarction and stroke(HR=1.12,95%CI:0.89-1.41;HR=0.99,95%CI:0.91-1.12).Conclusion:In T2DM patients in Yinzhou district of Ningbo,compared with metformin alone,sitagliptin added to metformin may reduce the risk of cardiovascular death,and do not increase the inci-dence of overall cardiovascular events.The results of this study can provide real-world evidence for post-marketing cardiovascular safety evaluation of sitagliptin.
9.Factors associated with the care needs of the older adults based on different disability levels
Haoyu ZHANG ; Yiwen SHI ; Wei PAN ; Aiping LIU ; Xinying SUN ; Man LI ; Xuxi ZHANG
Journal of Peking University(Health Sciences) 2024;56(3):431-440
Objective:To identify the factors associated with the care needs of the older adults aged 65-105 by age groups,and to compare these factors across different age groups.Methods:A total of 12 244 older adults from the Chinese longitudinal healthy longevity survey(CLHLS)conducted in 2018 were included in the analyses.The participants were categorized into three age groups:young-old(aged 65-79),middle-old(aged 80-89),and oldest-old(aged 90-105).The level of disability was measured by the disability index(DI)in four dimensions,reflecting their care needs.Potential factors associated with care needs were selected based on the health ecological model(HEM),including per-spectives of personal characteristics,behavioral characteristics,interpersonal network,living and working conditions,and policy environment.Multifactor analysis was performed using multinomial Logistic regres-sion.Results:Among China's 12 244 older adults,43.4%had medium or high care needs.Factors for higher care needs of older adults included higher age,higher number of chronic diseases,no exercise habit,excessive sleep duration(≥9 h/d),depressive tendency,living with children or spouse,and un-educated(all P<0.05).In addition,the young-old group who were past smokers(OR=2.009,95%CI:1.019-3.959),were past drinkers(OR=2.213,95%CI:1.141-4.291),and reported self-per-ceived poverty(OR=2.051,95%CI:1.189-3.540),had higher level of care needs.The middle-old group who were female(OR=1.373,95%CI:1.038-1.817),never drank alcohol(OR=1.551,95%CI:1.059-2.269),and were lack of medical insurance(OR=1.598,95%CI:1.053-2.426),and had higher level of care needs.The oldest-old group who were female(medium care needs vs.low care needs:OR=1.412,95%CI:1.062-1.878;high care needs vs.low care needs:OR=1.506,95%CI:1.137-1.993),reported self-perceived poverty(OR=2.064,95%CI:1.282-3.323),and were lack of medical insurance(OR=1.621,95%CI:1.148-2.291),and had higher level of care needs.Conclusion:The identical factors associated with care needs across different age groups include age,chronic disease,exercise,sleep,depression,living arrangement,and education.Smoking,alcohol consumption,and economic status are specific factors among the young-old group of the older adults,while gender and medical insurance are specific factors among the middle-old and the oldest-old group of the older adults.We recommend conducting prospective cohort studies and intervention studies among specific age groups on the above factors to provide reliable evidence for policy formulation.
10.Comparison of initiation of antihypertensive therapy strategies for primary preven-tion of cardiovascular diseases in Chinese population:A decision-analytic Markov modelling study
Tianjing ZHOU ; Qiuping LIU ; Minglu ZHANG ; Xiaofei LIU ; Jiali KANG ; Peng SHEN ; Hongbo LIN ; Xun TANG ; Pei GAO
Journal of Peking University(Health Sciences) 2024;56(3):441-447
Objective:To evaluate the health benefits and intervention efficiency of different strategies of initiating antihypertensive therapy for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases in a community-based Chinese population from the Chinese electronic health records research in Yinzhou(CHERRY)study.Methods:A decision-analytic Markov model was used to simulate and compare different antihy-pertensive initiation strategies,including:Strategy 1,initiation of antihypertensive therapy for Chinese adults with systolic blood pressure(SBP)≥140 mmHg(2020 Chinese guideline on the primary preven-tion of cardiovascular diseases);Strategy 2,initiation of antihypertensive therapy for Chinese adults with SBP≥130 mmHg;Strategy 3,initiation of antihypertensive therapy for Chinese adults with SBP ≥140 mmHg,or with SBP between 130 and 140 mmHg and at high risk of cardiovascular diseases(2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline for the prevention,detection,evaluation,and management of high blood pressure in adults);Strategy 4,initiation of antihypertensive therapy for Chinese adults with SBP≥ 160 mmHg,or with SBP between 140 and 160 mmHg and at high risk of car-diovascular diseases(2019 United Kingdom National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guideline for the hypertension in adults:Diagnosis and management).The high 10-year cardiovascular risk was de-fined as the predicted risk over 10%based on the 2019 World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts.Different strategies were simulated by the Markov model for ten years(cycles),with parame-ters mainly from the CHERRY study or published literature.After ten cycles of simulation,the numbers of quality-adjusted life years(QALY),cardiovascular events and all-cause deaths were calculated to evaluate the health benefits of each strategy,and the numbers needed to treat(NNT)for each cardiovas-cular event or all-cause death could be prevented were calculated to assess the intervention efficiency.One-way sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of incidence rates of cardiovascular disease and probabilis-tic sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of hazard ratios of interventions were conducted.Results:A to-tal of 213 987 Chinese adults aged 35-79 years without cardiovascular diseases were included.Com-pared with strategy 1,the number of cardiovascular events that could be prevented in strategy 2 increased by 666(95%UI:334-975),while the NNT per cardiovascular event prevented increased by 10(95%UI:7-20).In contrast to strategy 1,the number of cardiovascular events that could be prevented in strategy 3 increased by 388(95%UI:194-569),and the NNT per cardiovascular event prevented decreased by 6(95%UI:4-12),suggesting that strategy 3 had better health benefits and intervention efficiency.Compared to strategy 1,although the number of cardiovascular events that could be prevented decreased by 193(95%UI:98-281)in strategy 4,the NNT per cardiovascular event prevented decreased by 18(95%UI:13-37)with better efficiency.The results were consistent in the sensitivity analyses.Conclusion:When initiating antihypertensive therapy in an economically developed area of China,the strategy combined with cardiovascular risk assessment is more efficient than those purely based on the SBP threshold.The cardiovascular risk assessment strategy with different SBP thresholds is suggested to balance health benefits and intervention efficiency in diverse populations.

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