1.Construction and validation of a predictive model for early acute kidney injury in patients with cardiac arrest after cardiopulmonary resuscitation
Jinxiang WANG ; Luogang HUA ; Muming YU ; Lijun WANG ; Heng JIN ; Guowu XU
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2025;34(1):17-24
Objective:To construct a nomogram model for predicting the occurrence of acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients with cardiac arrest (CA) after cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), and to verify its validity for early prediction.Methods:The study retrospectively included patients aged 18 years and older who received CPR for CA and were admitted to the emergency room of Tianjin Medical University General Hospital from February 2016 to September 2023. The general information, underlying diseases, resuscitation related indicators, and first laboratory test results of patients were collected. The patients were randomly divided into training and validation groups at a ratio of 7:3. AKI diagnosis was based on the diagnostic criteria of the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify independent risk factors for AKI in patients with cardiac arrest, and a nomogram was constructed on the basis of the independent risk factors. The predictive performance was evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic. The calibration curve, decision curve and clinical impact curve were used to evaluate the model. Bootstrap and cross validation methods were used for internal validation.Results:A total of 527 patients with cardiac arrest were included in the study, 230 patients developed AKI, with an AKI incidence of 43.6%. There was no statistically significant difference in clinical baseline data between the training and validation groups (all P>0.05), indicating comparability between the two groups of data. Multivariate logistic analysis revealed that age ( OR=1.346, 95% CI: 1.197-1.543, P<0.001), CA to CPR time ( OR=2.214, 95% CI: 1.512-3.409, P=0.016), adrenaline dosage ( OR=1.921, 95% CI: 1.383-2.783, P=0.004), APACHE-Ⅱ score ( OR=1.531, 95% CI: 1.316-1.820, P<0.001), baseline creatinine ( OR=1.137, 95% CI: 1.090-1.196, P<0.001), and lactate ( OR=2.558, 95% CI: 1.680-4.167, P<0.001) were the independent risk factors for AKI in patients with cardiac arrest. Initial defibrillable rhythm ( OR=0.214, 95% CI: 0.051-0.759, P=0.023) was a protective factor for AKI in patients with cardiac arrest. A nomogram prediction model was constructed based on the above variables. The AUC of the training group was 0.943 (95% CI: 0.921-0.965) and that of the validation group was 0.917 (95% CI: 0.874-0.960). This prediction model demonstrated good discrimination, calibration and clinical applicability. Conclusions:A nomogram predictive model was constructed on the basis of age, CA to CPR time, initial defibrillable rhythm, adrenaline dosage, the APACHE-Ⅱ score, and baseline creatinine and lactate levels. This nomogram has good predictive value for the early occurrence of AKI in patients with cardiac arrest after cardiopulmonary resuscitation, which can provide new strategies for the early identification of AKI and precise intervention.
2.Biomarkers for evaluating neurological outcomes in cardiac arrest patients supported by extracorporeal membrane oxygenation
Peifeng NI ; Weidong ZHANG ; Gensheng ZHANG ; Qijiang CHEN ; Ying ZHU ; Wei HU ; Mengyuan DIAO
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2025;34(1):25-32
Objective:To investigate the correlation between serum neuron-specific enolase (NSE) levels and poor neurological outcomes in cardiac arrest (CA) patients supported by veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO).Methods:This retrospective analysis was conducted on adult CA patients treated with VA-ECMO at Hangzhou First People's Hospital Affiliated to Westlake University School of Medicine, and Second Affiliated Hospital Zhejiang University School of Medicine, from December 2018 to February 2024. General clinical data and serial serum NSE levels at 24, 48, and 72 h after ECMO initiation were collected. Based on the Glasgow-Pittsburgh Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) at discharge, patients were divided into poor neurological outcome group (CPC 3-5) and good neurological outcome group (CPC 1-2). Differences in serum NSE levels between the two groups were compared. The accuracy of serum NSE levels at three time points in predicting poor neurological outcomes in CA patients was assessed via receiver operating characteristic curves, and the optimal cut-off values were determined by the Youden index. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the relationship between serum NSE levels and poor neurological outcomes. Subgroup analysis was based on age, sex, location of CA, and extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR).Results:A total of 120 eligible CA patients were included, with 88 patients (73.3%) having poor neurological outcomes at discharge. Serum NSE levels at 24, 48, and 72 h after ECMO initiation were higher in the poor outcome group compared to the good outcome group (all P<0.05). The serum NSE level at 72 h had the highest accuracy in predicting poor outcomes, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.91 (95% CI: 0.85-0.96), and a cut-off value of 42.0 μg/L. The AUCs for 24 and 48 h were 0.78 (95% CI: 0.69-0.86) and 0.87 (95% CI: 0.80-0.94), with cut-off values of 70.6 μg/L and 64.5 μg/L, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis suggested that the serum NSE level at 72 h was associated with poor outcomes ( P<0.05), and an NSE level >42.0 μg/L was an independent risk factor for poor outcomes ( OR=20.29, 95% CI: 2.90-92.15). Subgroup analysis showed that serum NSE level at 72 h was an independent risk factor for poor neurological outcomes in CA patients aged<60 years old, male or female, out-of-hospital or in-hospital CA, and whether to perform ECPR (all P<0.05). Conclusion:Elevated serum NSE levels at 72 h after VA-ECMO initiation are associated with poor neurological outcomes in CA patients, with the cut-off value of 42.0 μg/L.
3.Insulin-like growth factor 1 attenuates sepsis-induced acute lung injury in mice by down-regulating the PI3K/AKT pathway
Peng HUANG ; Chunhe LIU ; Lili ZHENG ; Shikang LI ; Meifeng WANG ; Jinhua JIANG ; Ying LI ; Jiandong LIN ; Xiao LIN
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2025;34(1):33-39
Objective:To investigate the effect of insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) on acute lung injury in septic mice and its underlying molecular mechanism.Methods:Twenty SPF male C57BL/6J mice aged 6-8 weeks were randomly (random number) divided into the sham-operated group, sham-operated + IGF-1 group, sepsis group and sepsis + IGF-1 group, with 5 mice in each group. IGF-1 [60 μg/(kg·d)] was injected via the tail vein for 3 consecutive days in the sham-operated + IGF-1 group and sepsis + IGF-1 group, and mice in the sham-operated group and sepsis group were injected with an equal volume of saline. The tissue of the upper lobe of the right lung was taken to calculate the wet-to-dry ratio, and the upper lobe of the left lung was subjected to HE staining to analyze pathological changes and evaluate lung injury. The levels of interleukin (IL)-6 and IL-1β in the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) and serum of mice were detected by ELISA. The expression of p-PI3K, PI3K, p-AKT and AKT in lung tissues was determined via Western blotting. The quantitative data with a normal distribution and homogeneity of variance were compared between the two groups by two independent sample t test. Results:Lung volume was reduced in the sepsis group than in the sham-operated group, obvious surface congestion, dark red color, large bruises and hemorrhagic foci were observed under the pericardium, and the wet-to-dry ratio was significantly elevated ( P<0.05). Compared with the sepsis group, the sepsis + IGF-1 group had slightly increased lung volume, less congestion, darker red color, fewer bruises and hemorrhagic foci, and a lower wet-to-dry ratio ( P<0.05). There was no significant change in lung tissue morphology in the sham-operated + IGF-1 group compared with the sham-operated group. HE staining and lung histopathological scores showed that lung tissue was significantly damaged in the sepsis group than the sham-operated group ( P<0.001), and the pathological score of lung tissue was less damaged in the sepsis + IGF-1 group compared with the sepsis group ( P<0.01). The ELISA results demonstrated that the serum levels of IL-6 and IL-1β were markedly decreased in the sepsis + IGF-1 group than in the sepsis group [(26.22±1.60) pg/mL vs. (45.61±7.85) pg/mL, P<0.05; (87.99±11.80) pg/mL vs. (181.26±10.11) pg/mL, P<0.001]. Moreover, the IL-6 and IL-1β contents in the BALF of the sepsis + IGF-1 group were notably lower than those in the BALF of the sepsis group [(7.67±0.42) pg/mL vs. (20.25±0.43) pg/mL, P<0.001; (17.00±6.08) pg/mL vs. (108.61±5.18), pg/mL P <0.001]. Western blot analysis revealed that the expression of p-PI3K, PI3K, p-AKT and AKT in the lung tissues of mice in the sepsis+IGF-1 group were markedly lower than that in the sepsis group [(0.71±0.05) vs. (1.21±0.09), P<0.05; (0.57±0.08) vs. (1.24±0.22), P<0.01; (0.29±0.07) vs. (1.10±0.04), P<0.001; (0.65±0.17) vs. (1.19±0.07), P<0.01]. Conclusion:IGF-1 ameliorates sepsis-induced acute lung injury in mice, and its protective effect may be achieved by inhibiting the PI3K/AKT pathway.
4.Cellular FLICE-like inhibitory protein inhibits oxidative stress through activating the Nrf2/HO-1 signaling pathway to alleviate myocardial ischemia-reperfusion injury in rats
Gang ZHOU ; Yunzhao LI ; Hui WU ; Di LIU ; Dong ZHANG ; Qingzhuo YANG ; Yanfang LIU ; Yi LI
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2025;34(1):40-46
Objective:To investigate the role and mechanisms of cellular FLICE-like inhibitory protein (cFLIP) in mediating oxidative stress induced by myocardial ischemia-reperfusion injury (MI/RI) in rats.Methods:Forty-eight male Sprague-Dawley rats with body weight of 180-200 g, were randomly divided into 4 groups ( n=12 per group) using a random number table: sham operation group (sham group), ischemia-reperfusion group (I/R group), virus control group (I/R+Ad-NC group), and cFLIPL-overexpressing group (I/R+Ad-cFLIPL group). A myocardial ischemia-reperfusion injury (MI/RI) model was established by ligating the left anterior descending coronary artery for 30 min followed by 3 h of reperfusion. The left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and left ventricular fractional shortening (LVFS) in rats were evaluated via echocardiography, and a biochemical analyzer was used to measure the serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and creatine kinase isoenzyme (CK-MB) levels to evaluate the extent of myocardial injury. The 2,3,5- triphenyl tetrazolium chloride (TTC) staining method was used to detect the infarct area of the rat myocardium, and hematoxylin and eosin (HE) staining was performed to observe the morphology of the rat myocardial tissue. Commercial kits were used to measure the levels of superoxide dismutase (SOD), glutathione peroxidase (GSH-px), and malondialdehyde (MDA). Dihydroethidium (DHE) staining was used to assess the number of reactive oxygen species (ROS)-positive cells in the myocardial tissue. Western blot analysis was performed to evaluate the protein expression of cFLIPL, Nrf2, and HO-1. Results:During MI/RI, compared with the sham group, the protein expression of cFLIPL was significantly decreased in the I/R group, and compared with the I/R+Ad-NC group, the protein expression of cFLIPL was significantly increased in the I/R+Ad-cFLIPL group (both P<0.05). Compared with sham group, the level of LDH, CK-MB, MDA, ROS-positive cell count, and myocardial infarct size were significantly increased, whereas the LVEF, LVFS, SOD, and GSH-px were significantly decreased in I/R group (all P<0.05). Compared to the I/R+Ad-NC group, the level of LDH, CK-MB, MDA, ROS-positive cell count, and myocardial infarct area were significantly decreased, whereas the LVEF, LVFS, SOD, and GSH-px were significantly increased in I/R+Ad-cFLIPL group (all P<0.05). Western blot revealed that compared with the sham group, the protein expression of Nrf2 and HO-1 in I/R group were significantly increased, and compared with the I/R+Ad-NC group, the protein expression of Nrf2 and HO-1 in the I/R + Ad-cFLIPL group were significantly increased (all P<0.05). Conclusion:Overexpression of cFLIPL can alleviate myocardial ischemia-reperfusion injury (MI/RI) in rats by activating the Nrf2/HO-1 signaling pathway to inhibit oxidative stress.
5.Development and validation of a nomogram model for predicting the risk of ventilator-associated pneumonia in patients with mechanical ventilation
Jiaying LI ; Guifang LI ; Ziqing LIU ; Hongxiao YANG ; Jincong WANG ; Xingyu YANG ; Qiuyan YANG ; Yao BIAN ; Rong MA
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2025;34(1):47-54
Objective:To develop a nomogram model for predicting the risk of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) in patients with mechanical ventilation (MV) and to validate the stability of the prediction performance of the model.Methods:The patients with MV admitted to the Department of Critical Care Medicine of General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University from January 2019 to December 2022 were retrospectively selected according to the order of admission. The patients with MV were divided into the non-VAP group and the VAP group according to whether VAP occurred. The clinical data of the two groups, including general information, disease, medication, condition, and operation-related indicators were collected as candidate predictors of the model for comparison. Multivariate logistic stepwise forward regression analysis was used to screen the predictors that finally entered the model, and a nomogram model was constructed. The model discrimination was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the diagnostic test results of the model at the predicted threshold were calculated, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to evaluate the model fit, and the Bootstrap resampling was used 1 000 times for internal validation, and model calibration and clinical applicability were evaluated by calibration curve and decision analysis curve, respectively.Results:A total of 1 250 patients with MV were included, including 1 102 patients in the non-VAP group and 148 patients in the VAP group, and the prevalence of VAP was 11.8%. The detection of multidrug-resistant organisms, chronic kidney disease, brain injury, oxygenation index, the place of tracheal intubation, reintubation, use of bronchoscopy, use of antibiotics, and MV duration were model predictors of VAP. The AUC of the nomogram model was 0.917 (95% CI: 0.895-0.939), the maximum Youden index of 0.697 corresponded to a prediction threshold of 0.096. The model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity were 0.836, 0.865, and 0.832, respectively. The positive predictive value and the negative predictive value were 0.409 and 0.979, respectively. The Hosmer- Lemeshow test indicated that the model fit well ( P=0.938). The results of the internal validation of the model showed that the predicted risk of the calibration curve was generally consistent with the actual risk, and the decision threshold probability of the decision analysis curve ranged from 2% to 90%. Conclusions:The nomogram model developed in this study is simple, convenient and has relatively stable prediction performance, which can be externally validated to evaluate the extrapolation of the model, and provide a basis for individualized clinical prediction of the risk of VAP in patients with MV.
6.Comparison of the prognostic predictive efficacy of three frailty screening scales in elderly patients in the emergency department
Huizhen LIU ; Guodong WANG ; Yong SHANG ; Na SHANG ; Junyu LI ; Na WANG ; Xiaomeng LIU ; Shubin GUO ; Suxia MA
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2025;34(1):55-61
Objective:To investigate the association between frailty and prognosis of elderly patients in the emergency department, and to validate frailty screening tools suitable for the emergency department.Methods:This was a prospective cohort study. Clinical data of elderly patients over 60 years old treated in the emergency department of Beijing Bo'Ai Hospital from January to December 2021 were collected. The Frailty Screening Questionnaire (FSQ), FRAIL Scale (FRAIL) and Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) were used to score patients, and patients were divided into frail or non-frail group according to the criteria of the above three scales. Twelve-month all-cause mortality was the primary endpoint, dependence and re-admission to the emergency department within 12 months were secondary outcomes. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to evaluate the ability of the FSQ, FRAIL and CFS scores to predict the primary and secondary endpoints, and the areas under the curve (AUC) were calculated and compared. Survival analysis was performed using Cox hazard proportional regression model, and relative risk was expressed as hazard ratio ( HR) and 95% CI. Results:A total of 406 patients were included in the study. The AUCs (95% CI) of FSQ, FRAIL and CFS scores for predicting 12-month all-cause mortality were 0.879 (0.844-0.909), 0.838 (0.798-0.872), 0.906 (0.873-0.933), respectively (all P<0.001). The AUCs of 3 scores for predicting secondary endpoints ranged from 0.820 to 0.889 (all P<0.001). Pairwise comparisons of the AUCs showed that the CFS was superior to one or both of the other frailty screening scales in predicting 12-month all-cause mortality and dependence except for re-admission to emergency room within 12 months after discharge (all P<0.05). Cox regression analysis revealed that, after adjusting for sex, age, body mass index and comorbidities, frailty as defined by the FSQ, FRAIL, and CFS scales was independently associated with 12-month all-cause mortality, with the HRadj of 3.267 (95% CI: 2.406-4.435), 2.465 (95% CI: 1.819-3.341), 3.523 (95% CI: 2.648-4.687), respectively (all P<0.001). Conclusions:FSQ, FRAIL and CFS scores can predict adverse outcomes, the CFS is a practical frailty screening tool in the emergency department, and frailty screening can improve the risk stratification of older patients.
7.Relationship between persistent fibrinolysis shutdown after initial resuscitation and clinical outcomes in severe trauma patients
Luping ZHANG ; Chen YANG ; Jian JIANG ; Ye GAO ; Ronghai SHAO ; Lijun LIU
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2025;34(1):62-69
Objective:To evaluate the dynamic changes in fibrinolytic states after initial resuscitation in severe trauma patients, and to analyze the relationship between the changes and clinical outcomes.Methods:A prospective cohort study was conducted on severe trauma patients admitted to the trauma center in Taicang Hospital, affiliated with Soochow University, from July 2021 to December 2022. Resuscitation treatments, including tranexamic acid (TXA), were administered. Thromboelastography was performed at three intervals: upon admission, 1 hour and 8 hours after initial resuscitation. Fibrinolytic states were categorized into three phenotypes based on clot lysis at 30 minutes: fibrinolysis shutdown (SD), physiologic fibrinolysis (PY), and hyperfibrinolysis (HF). The primary outcomes included all-cause mortality at 24 hours and 28 days. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the association between early fibrinolytic changes and clinical outcomes.Results:A total of 132 patients with severe trauma were included. Upon admission, fibrinolytic phenotypes were distributed as follows: SD in 61 patients (46.2%), PY in 59 patients (44.7%), and HF in 12 patients (9.1%). After resuscitation with TXA and other interventions, SD and PY remained predominant, whereas HF further decreased. Compared with the SD and PY groups, the HF group had significantly higher 24-hour mortality (25.0% vs. 3.3% vs. 3.4%, P<0.05) and 28-day mortality (58.3% vs. 32.8% vs. 11.9%, P<0.05), with massive hemorrhage being the primary cause of death. Among the non-HF groups, 28-day mortality was significantly higher in the SD group than in the PY group (32.8% vs. 11.9%, P<0.05), with traumatic brain injury as the leading cause of death. After the exclusion of 12 HF patients, multivariate logistic regression showed that after adjusting for age, Glasgow Coma Scale score ≤ 8, prothrombin time, and 24-hour crystalloid infusion volume, identified persistent SD was a risk factor for 28-day mortality in severe trauma patients, compared with sustained PY status ( OR=7.009, 95% CI: 1.141-43.079, P=0.036). Conclusions:In patients with severe trauma, SD and PY are the predominant fibrinolysis phenotypes after initial and early resuscitation. Persistent SD following resuscitation is significantly associated with an increased risk of 28-day mortality.
8.Efficacy and prognostic analysis of prothrombin complex concentrate in 349 patients with trauma-induced coagulopathy
Xianhui MA ; Yangbo KANG ; Qi YANG ; Hongbo DING ; Jiasheng SHEN ; Yong'an XU
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2025;34(1):70-77
Objective:Efficacy of prothrombin complex concentration (PCC) and analysis of prognostic factors in patients with traumatic trauma-induced coagulopathy (TIC).Methods:A retrospective study was conducted on patients with TIC admitted to 11 hospitals from January to December 2021. The data included baseline characteristics, injury information, blood product transfusions (including PCC treatment), laboratory examination at admission and 24 hour-after admission, treatment measure, pre-hospitalization time, and clinical outcomes (improvement at discharge, length of hospital stay). The patients were divided into a conventional group and a PCC group according to whether they were treated with PCC. Propensity score matching method was used to match the patients at a 1:1 ratio, and the differences in different indicators between the groups were compared. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify prognostic factors for TIC patients.Results:After propensity score matching, 103 patients were identified in both the PCC and conventional groups. Univariate logistic regression analysis revealed no significant differences in age, gender, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, injury severity score, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation score, underlying diseases, pre-hospitalization time, injury type and site, and treatment measure (use of vasoactive drugs, calcium agents, tranexamic acid, and emergency surgery) between the two groups (all P>0.05). Compared with the conventional group, the PCC group exhibited lower 24-hour white blood cell counts, lactate level, prothrombin time, and international normalized ratio (INR) (all P<0.05), whereas hemoglobin level and pH value were higher (both P<0.05). The PCC group also had a shorter hospital stay (13 d vs. 15 d, P<0.05). However, there was no significant difference in the rate of improvement at discharge between the two groups ( P=0.308). Multivariate logistic regression revealed that age (>68 years), GCS score (<5 points), fibrinogen (FIB) level (after 24 h, <2.04 g/L), and INR (after 24 h, >1.455) were independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of TIC patients, and the AUCs were 0.632, 0.702, 0.733, and 0.752, respectively. Conclusions:Treatment with PCC in TIC patients can correct coagulation dysfunction and reduce hospital stay. Age, GCS score, FIB level and INR after 24 h affect the clinical prognosis of TIC patients, which requires special attention.
9.Prognostic value of serum Mrp 8/14 in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome induced by pulmonary sepsis and extrapulmonary sepsis
Caizhi SUN ; Yongpeng XIE ; Chenchen ZHU ; Haidong QIN ; Xiaomin LI
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2025;34(1):78-83
Objective:To investigate the differences and prognostic value of serum myeloid-related proteins 8 and 14 (Mrp 8/14) in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) induced by pulmonary and extrapulmonary sepsis.Methods:A retrospective cohort study was conducted to collect the general clinical data of septic ARDS patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of Nanjing Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from August 2021 to February 2024. The serum levels of Mrp 8/14 were detected within 24 hours after admission. According to whether the patients died during ICU stay, the patients with pulmonary ARDS and extrapulmonary ARDS induced by sepsis were divided into survival and death groups, respectively. The differences of Mrp 8/14 and other clinical data between the two groups were compared. Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the prognostic factors of septic patients with pulmonary ARDS and extrapulmonary ARDS. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to evaluate the predictive value of serum Mrp 8/14 for the prognosis of patients with pulmonary ARDS and extrapulmonary ARDS.Results:A total of 138 patients with sepsis-induced ARDS were enrolled in this study, including 79 patients with pulmonary ARDS and 59 patients with extrapulmonary ARDS. Compared to the death group, the level of serum Mrp 8/14 was significantly lower [Mrp 8/14: 22.90 (17.91, 30.88) μg/mL vs. 10.73 (7.15, 17.20) μg/mL, P<0.05]. Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the serum Mrp 8/14 level was an independent risk factor for the prognosis of pulmonary ARDS patients only during the ICU stay ( OR=1.253, 95% CI: 1.110-1.414, P<0.05). ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve of serum Mrp 8/14 for the prediction of death in ARDS patients with pulmonary sepsis during ICU stay was 0.855 (95% CI: 0.773-0.938, P<0.05), the cut-off value was 19.230 μg/mL, the sensitivity was 0.718, the specificity was 0.925, and the Yonden index was 0.405. Conclusion:Serum Mrp 8/14 is an effective prognostic indicator for the mortality of ARDS patients with pulmonary sepsis during ICU hospitalization.
10.Study on association between acute muscle wasting and poor prognosis in older patients with severe pneumonia in the emergency department
Na SHANG ; Qiujing LI ; Fei TENG ; Xiangqun ZHANG ; Shubin GUO
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2025;34(1):84-89
Objective:To explore the association between acute muscle wasting during hospitalization and poor prognosis in older patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP) in emergency department.Methods:This study was a prospective cohort study. From January 1, 2022 to October 31, 2022, consecutive patients aged ≥65 years who met the diagnostic criteria of SCAP and had an interval of 14 days between two CT scans in the emergency department of Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital were enrolled. The general clinical data and cross-sectional area of the erector spinae muscle (ESMcsa) of the thoracic 12 level derived from chest CT on day 1 and day 14 were recorded and the differences between the two measurements were calculated. Patients were divided into survival group and non-survival group based on whether they died within 28 days. Two independent samples t-test and Mann Whitney U test were used to compare the dynamic changes of ESMcsa between two groups, and paired t-test and Wilcoxon signed rank test were used to compare the changes of ESMcsa within two groups. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors for 28-day mortality, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to determine the predictive value of ESMcsa loss for 28-day mortality. The optimal cutoff value was determined on the basis of the Youden index (YI), patients were divided into a high muscle loss group and a low muscle loss group, and Kaplan Meier survival curve was drawn. Results:A total of 106 older patients with SCAP were included, with a median age of 82.0 years and 59 were men (55.7%). The ESMcsa levels of patients in non-survival group were lower than those in survival group both at admission and on the 14th day (both P<0.01). The ESMcsa levels on admission were lower than those on the 14th day in non-survival group ( P<0.001). The loss of ESMcsa in non-survival group [3.01 (-1.51, 7.73) cm 2vs. 0.80 (-2.58, 4.57) cm 2, P=0.020] was higher than that in the survival group. Multivariable Cox regression showed that ESMcsa loss was an independent risk factor for 28-day mortality ( HR=1.116, 95%CI: .029-1.210, P=0.010), the AUC for predicting 28-day mortality was 0.646 (95% CI: 0.528-0.763, P=0.020), and the optimal cut-off value was 6.22 cm 2. Kaplan Meier survival curve showed that the 28-day mortality risk in the high muscle loss group was higher than that in the low muscle loss group ( χ2=11.412, P=0.001). Conclusion:Acute muscle wasting during hospitalization was associated with 28-day mortality among older patients with SCAP, which provides a basis for improving patient prognosis from a muscle perspective.

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