Construction of an indicator system for risk assessment on imported malaria during post-elimination period in China
10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20220815-00713
- VernacularTitle:我国疟疾消除后阶段输入风险评估指标体系的构建
- Author:
Qiao LIU
1
;
Min LIU
;
Jue LIU
Author Information
1. 北京大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系，北京100191
- Keywords:
Imported malaria;
Risk assessment;
Indicator system;
Delphi method
- From:
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2023;44(1):67-73
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To establish an indicator system for risk assessment on imported malaria and provide a reference tool for the assessment of risk of imported malaria during post-elimination period in China.Methods:A preliminary risk assessment indicator system for imported malaria was established through a literature review. Eighteen malaria control experts in China were invited to conduct two rounds of consultation on the indicator system using Delphi method, and experts were asked to score the importance, operability, familiarity and judgment basis of each indicator, and the active coefficient, authority coefficient and coordination coefficient of the experts were calculated. Cronbach's coefficient α, expert authority coefficient and factor analysis were used to evaluate the intrinsic reliability, content validity and structural validity of the indicator system, respectively. Results:Finally, 13 experts completed 2 rounds of consultation for the construction of an imported malaria risk assessment indicator system consisting of 3 primary indicators, 6 second level indicators and 44 third level indicators. The active coefficients of the experts were 72% (13/18) and 100% (13/13) respectively in the 2 rounds of consultation. The Kendall coordination coefficients for the importance and operability scores of the indicators were 0.22 and 0.25, respectively, which were with significance. The Cronbach's coefficients α for the importance, operability, and familiarity and judgment basis scores of the indicator system were 0.938, 0.945, 0.983, and 0.962, respectively. The third level indicators with the first normalized weight value under each second level indicator are strictness of protective measures taken by inbound people with infection risk (0.048 1) , local vector energy in the insect vector characteristics (0.019 8), local altitude in the natural factor characteristics (0.028 5), accessibility of antimalarial drugs in source country in the risk of international exposure (0.034 2), local geographic relationship with source country in the risk of international transmission (0.050 1), and joint multisectoral prevention and control mechanisms in the domestic prevention and control capacity (0.044 6). Conclusion:A risk assessment indicator system for imported malaria has been successfully established, which can be used as a references tool for the prevention of re-transmission of malaria due to imported malaria cases in post-elimination period in China.
